insights.

We are delighted to announce that Lombard Odier has won the PWM WealthTech Europe award for the digital empowerment of relationship managers.

Europe enjoyed decades of unprecedented peace and prosperity after World War Two. 

The rhetoric between the US and Mexico over tariffs and the future of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) may be about to worsen. Investors are questioning whether an almost-certain “centre-left” presidential victory in Mexico next month will further complicate trade with its northern neighbor and most important market. 

Article published in Philanthropy Impact, April 23, 2018
By Dr Maximilian Martin, Global Head of Philanthropy

Of the more than 40 crises that we have overcome in the past two centuries, the period between 1914 and 1945 was undoubtedly the most challenging.

How will technology affect banks over the next five years? Is it a friend or foe? Such were the issues debated at Lombard Odier’s all-day Technology Fair on Thursday, 31 May at its Corraterie headquarters in Geneva.

Italy’s political turmoil, which hasn’t gone away with a new government, has created the third euro-related crisis in less than a decade. Will the country remain a Eurozone member and make good on election pledges to spend its way out of economic stagnation? These still-open questions have driven Italy’s benchmark government bond yields higher and the euro lower as investors assess the odds.

As rethinkers, we quickly realised the burgeoning potential of the Americas. Our founding fathers successfully ventured into this new emerging continent and unearthed the investment potential of the oil, steel and railway industries.

The US dollar (USD) has seen a startling rebound over the last month, with implications across asset classes. As former US Treasury Secretary John Connally once said: “the dollar is our currency, but your problem”. For markets, the problem is working out when and where the rally will end. We believe the gains have occurred for a variety of reasons, some of which are technical, and we expect an eventual tapering off as the market takes a fresh look at fundamentals.

This period of our history is intertwined with the Industrial Revolution. As bold visionaries, we helped shape the progress of these times by financing the railways and investing in technological expansion

Insight in French
Article publié dans La Tribune de Genève online, le 23 mai 2018

Italy’s efforts to build a coalition government out of two largely irreconcilable parties advanced this week as President Sergio Mattarella confirmed Giuseppe Conte’s appointment as Prime Minister. This hands Mr Conte, an academic with no political experience, the job of forming a government that satisfies both the anti-establishment Five Star Movement (M5S) and the right-wing La Lega. 

The birth of Lombard Odier is a story rooted in Geneva and the families of our founding fathers.

European populism is becoming a permanent feature of the continent’s post-crisis political landscape. More than two months after an Italian general election, which provided another unlikely political outcome, the country’s majority coalition is close to forming a government that may exacerbate Italy’s economic weaknesses. 

Insight in French
Dirigeant, indépendant ou entrepreneur, la fin de carrière est un moment stratégique pour profiter des opportunités de (re)valoriser son patrimoine.

Article publié dans Indices, le 7 mai 2018

The Association of Swiss Private Banks (ABPS) produces a regular series of videos that present the private banking professions.

Fondation Lombard Odier awarded the Extraordinary Voyages Prize at Lausanne’s Théâtre de Vidy to seven female students. These seven young women have been honoured with the opportunity to embark on five outstanding and ambitious travel projects. The trips will cover all corners of the earth, ranging from the Mekong to Iran.

One year into the Emmanuel Macron presidency, a check-list of implemented changes includes reforms to the labour market, education and vocational training; challenges to the rail unions and public pensions; reductions in public debt, and a wealth tax overhaul. All helped by an expanding economy, itself aided by growth in the Eurozone, global trade and low borrowing rates for consumers and companies.

In February we wrote that while Argentina’s economic path to growth was unlikely to be smooth, it should remain positive. Recent events are proving bumpier than we anticipated.

Argentina is now in the midst of a full-blown currency crisis.

Lombard Odier has been recognised for its achievements in delivering innovation to our clients at The WealthBriefing European Awards for 2018.

Sovereign debt is at its highest level since the financial crisis, according to the International Monetary Fund. After a long period of low interest rates, government debt has reached USD 164 trillion, equivalent to 225% of global GDP in 2016, making the world 12% deeper in debt compared with 2009. 

Article published in Finanz und Wirtschaft, April 28, 2018
By Annika Falkengren, Managing Partner, Lombard Odier Group

Stock market turmoil experienced in late January highlighted the strong link that exists between interest rates and equities, especially when moves on rates are abrupt. Theoretically, the impact of higher nominal rates and inflation on corporate earnings is ambiguous as multiple transmission channels can work in opposing directions. The effect on valuation is more straightforward: higher rates reduce the net present value of expected cash flows.

Lombard Odier explored new ways for philanthropists to benefit society at its Rethink Philanthropy symposium in Zurich on Wednesday, 18 April. Humanitarian, educational and investment experts said the time was ripe for philanthropy to play a key role in tackling social and environmental challenges.

China’s response to escalating trade tensions with the US has emphasised how its role in the global economy has fundamentally changed. We see Beijing as a stabilising force in the later stages of the economic cycle and our positive view underpins some of our key asset allocation positioning.

At its ‘Rethink Philanthropy’ symposium held in Zurich on April 18, Lombard Odier gathered humanitarian, educational and investment leaders to discuss how leveraging the power of science, innovative forms of financing, and data can bring about new solutions to significant social and environmental challenges, and how philanthropy can make the catalytic difference.

As expected, rising uncertainties pertaining to inflation and monetary policy are making for a more volatile financial market environment, in which nimbleness and investment discipline will be key.

Cyclical winds are fading in emerging markets, but the structural case remains valid: imbalances have moderated, foreign currency debt has diminished, and international reserves have swelled.

Consistently positive GDP growth, an exceptionally tight labour market, and steady recovery in consumer prices also make a shift in Bank of Japan policy likely later this year.

Spooked by the Trump administration’s sanctions on Russian individuals and companies, investors are struggling to value Russian assets. While the most immediate turmoil has been as predictable as the Russian government’s reaction is unforeseeable, we believe that it’s more important to step back and look at the historic implications. 

Article published in Le Temps, April 16, 2018
By Hubert Keller, Managing Partner, Lombard Odier Group

The recovery-turned-expansion is firmly in place, even if growth appears to be moderating somewhat from very high levels.

The stage is set for inflation in the US this year: a tight labour market, the traditional lag between GDP growth and inflation, and pro-growth policies being implemented so late in the cycle.

An extension of the positive trend in global trade is the backbone of our pro-risk asset allocation. But how long can the upcycle last? What if trade tensions escalate? 

Three of the world’s leading central banks have sounded a warning call about the risks that climate change poses to the financial system. On this, we believe that investors can no longer afford to treat environmental and other ESG issues as a niche concern in portfolios.

Responsible investing already accounts for more than one in five dollars managed professionally in the US, and studies suggest that the proportion could be almost 53% for European assets. With this growth poised to accelerate, sustainability is quickly becoming a ‘whole portfolio’ affair – and we would encourage investors to think of it as such.

We hold to our scenario of sustained decent growth across the main economic blocs. But while all regions are currently in expansion territory, they are de-synchronized in terms of their phase within the cycle.

In the coming decades, artificial general intelligence could present us with a tightrope to infinity. Will we be prepared for a safe crossing, or do we risk a plunge into oblivion?

Insight in French
Article publié dans La Tribune de Genève online, le 5 avril 2018
Par Sophie Chardon, Stratège cross-asset

On 12 March, the Lombard Odier Rethink Responsible Capital symposium brought together political, business and investment leaders to discuss how our world is changing in the face of significant social and environmental challenges, and how investors can gear their portfolios for this new paradigm.

Total client assets increased by 17% reflecting a relentless focus on clients.

In 2010 Christiana Figueres took on what many considered would be an impossible task. As the former Executive Secretary of the UN Framework for Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) she was responsible for leading the world towards a global agreement on tackling climate change.

Article publié dans Denaris, le 7 mars 2018
Par Laurent Pellet

What is the impact of climate change on the global economy and financial markets?

The US government’s imposition of tariffs on certain metals imports has unnerved the market at a time when most other economic fundamentals look fairly rosy. Our central scenario remains positive, and we believe that the measures introduced are about positioning rather than raw protectionism, however, it is still worth understanding the risks of any escalation.

A sustainability revolution is underway, which will drive economic and investment outcomes over the long term.

On 12 March, the Lombard Odier Rethink Responsible Capital symposium brought together political, business and investment leaders to discuss how our world is changing in the face of significant social and environmental challenges, and how investors can gear their portfolios for this new paradigm.

As Al Gore, former US Vice President and co-founder of Generation Investment Management told the audience during his keynote speech: “The sustainability revolution is the single largest investment opportunity in history.”

As rethinkers, we aspire to bring together innovators, pioneers and change makers to transform the world around us. Our private Rethink Responsible Capital Symposium on March 12, 2018 will welcome Ms. Christiana Figueres, the Executive Secretary of the UN Framework for Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the driving force behind leading the world towards COP21, a global agreement on tackling climate change.

Vous êtes résident Suisse et vous souhaitez financer une résidence principale ou secondaire, ou encore investir dans de l’immobilier locatif résidentiel et/ou commercial. Vous recherchez par conséquent le meilleur partenaire, qui vous propose des solutions hypothécaires ou de crédit ne dépendant pas de ses intérêts et de son bilan, mais plutôt et avant tout des vôtres. La Banque Lombard Odier & Cie SA est, dès lors, votre interlocuteur privilégié.

Article publié dans La Tribune de Genève online, le 12 mars 2018
Par Stéphanie de Torquat, Stratège macro

The political agenda in emerging economies is relatively busy in 2018. We assess the potential impact of the various votes across the regions.

How can a long period of politically induced uncertainty play into Italy’s economic recovery and our investment strategy?

Discover our latest insights in this video featuring our Chief Economist Samy Chaar.