Cyclical winds are fading in emerging markets, but the structural case remains valid: imbalances have moderated, foreign currency debt has diminished, and international reserves have swelled.
Consistently positive GDP growth, an exceptionally tight labour market, and steady recovery in consumer prices also make a shift in Bank of Japan policy likely later this year.
Spooked by the Trump administration’s sanctions on Russian individuals and companies, investors are struggling to value Russian assets. While the most immediate turmoil has been as predictable as the Russian government’s reaction is unforeseeable, we believe that it’s more important to step back and look at the historic implications.
Article published in Le Temps, April 16, 2018
By Hubert Keller, Managing Partner, Lombard Odier Group
The recovery-turned-expansion is firmly in place, even if growth appears to be moderating somewhat from very high levels.
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