insights.

The global move toward sustainability — and tackling challenges such as climate change, inequality and demographic shift — continues apace but there is a marked contrast in approach from the world's superpowers.

The next economic revolution is already underway, which we believe could be the biggest driver of investment returns in the next three years and beyond.

Brazil’s voters go to the polls for the first round of general elections on 7 October in a race closely watched by investors looking for signs of fiscal improvement. High on the priority list for the eventual winner is the urgent need for pension reform to limit the country’s debt, which we consider an important risk in Brazil.

Article published in NZZ , September 13,  2018

Digitalization will make private banking even more personal and tailored. Thanks to their agile structures as well as their resource and financial strength, private banks have a decisive competitive advantage.

The Federal Reserve's tightening process is well under way – and well ahead of other major central banks. Despite the tightening steps already taken, and a well advanced economic cycle, signs of slowdown in the US economy are still mostly absent.

Article published in Le Temps, September 9, 2018

It can be hard, sometimes, to block out the noise and focus on what really matters. But, when it comes to emerging markets, this can be an incredibly useful skill for investors looking for attractive long-term opportunities.

Italy’s populist politics are again destabilising the Eurozone as the country’s new government prepares a domestic budget and threatens to withhold its payments to the European Union, undermining investor confidence.

Article published in Finanz und Wirtschaft, August 28, 2018, by Monica Hegglin

As an investment bank, Lombard Odier impressed Jules Verne. When the foundations were laid for the private bank in 1796, Geneva was not yet a part of Switzerland. Asset management came along much later.

Operating income up 10% with net profit up 16%

Five years ago, emerging markets set off on a rocky road as the so-called "taper tantrum" rattled investors. Fast forward to 2018, and the US is firmly in tightening mode, the dollar (USD) is strong, US rates are on the up, and emerging markets are feeling the pinch once again.

Article published in Islamic Business & Finance, August 16, 2018

Lombard Odier has launched of a Shari'ah-compliant discretionary mandate, the first in its 222-year history. The exclusive discretionary mandate has been officially certified as Shari'ah compliant by the eminent Shari'ah Supervisory Board of Amanie Advisors, who issued a Fatwa in February.

Insight in French
La planification successorale pour une entreprise familiale régie par le droit suisse est un processus continu et complexe. Quelles sont les étapes et les instruments juridiques à disposition pour une planification successorale réussie ? Entretien avec Marie-Christine Von Pezold, Head of Lombard Odier Family Programme.

Lombard Odier Group’s newest Managing Partner has embraced the “Rethink Everything” mantra. Our interview with Annika Falkengren looks at why she joined the bank, lessons from the financial crisis… and the trouble with Freddie.

Investment experts have often sceptically dismissed cryptocurrencies as excessively volatile. Technologists have described them as revolutionary. Who is correct? Will cryptocurrencies become a mainstream asset class?

The world of philanthropy is changing. As global challenges loom in health, the environment and sustainable development, wealthy donors are increasingly acting as catalysts for projects that that can deliver a far greater impact than we have seen before. Three questions to Denis Pittet, Managing Partner of the Lombard Odier Group and Chairman of Fondation Philanthropia.

Technology and globalisation, paired with a hunger for impact, are fundamentally reshaping how philanthropists can support art and culture.

Just over two years ago economists warned of a “Brexit shock” to the UK when the British voted to leave the European Union (EU). Investors and companies were expected to shun a country that had decided to leave the world’s largest trading bloc, dealing a damaging blow to the economy. In reality, the aftermath is turning into a slow economic asphyxiation. 

The world of virtual reality (VR) is seeping into the mainstream. And it's not only adolescent gamers who will reap the benefits.

When Steve Jobs unveiled the "revolutionary and magical” iPhone in 2007, it seemed reasonable to suppose that smart mobile devices would not only change the way we interact, but help us to do more with our time. In fact, measures of productivity growth across many developed economies have halved, or worse, in the decade since the arrival of the iPhone. Why did productivity growth shrink and why should investors care? 

With the soft patch experienced by non-US economies now likely over, fundamentals should run strong, underpinning our pro-growth stance. Rising political uncertainty nonetheless warrants adjustments in active portfolio risk and a continued search for asymmetric trade opportunities.

The global environment is not conducive for emerging markets to thrive, but the countries most affected to date have been those with the weakest fundamentals or highest political risk.

In Japan, the steady uptrend in wages and rebound in activity will ease concerns surrounding negative 1st quarter GDP growth; despite its dovish talk, the Bank of Japan is engaged in a “silent tapering”. 

Some of the predictions for how working life will change in the 21st century are stark. That has sparked much hand-wringing about how humans will adapt, how economies will evolve, and how investors might benefit.

The Eurozone economy has taken a breather, but the softness recorded year-to-date does not herald a sustained downturn and the central bank has committed to remaining accommodative for longer. 

Leading indicators are not pointing to a US recession anytime soon – particularly since the Federal Reserve has no reason to speed-up its policy tightening.

We continue to assume that trade tensions will remain contained but must recognise that the prospect of a trade war has become a risk warranting serious consideration.

Article published in NZZ am Sonntag, July 8, 2018
By Annika Falkengren, Managing Partner, Lombard Odier Group

Discover our latest investment insights from Stéphane Monier, CIO Private Bank, and Samy Chaar, Chief Economist, in our quarterly investment strategy video.

Since 2013 the technology sector has accounted for a rising share of stock indices, and this year returns have outstripped the wider market. As the importance of tech companies has risen from 17% to 26% of the MSCI World since the financial crisis, we look at the risks and opportunities the sector presents for investors’ portfolios.

Article published in Le Temps, June 19, 2018 By Sébastien Ruche

In banking, artificial intelligence and data analysis provide support to bankers so they can spend more time with their clients," explains Arash Sorouchyari, Lombard Odier.

Time waits for no bank but the core values that inspire us are timeless and will drive us forward

Insight in French
Article publié dans L'Agefi - Indices, le 25 juin 2018

 

 

If you wanted one health metric for the global economy over the past decade, oil consumption is a good candidate. Consumption rose more than 14% from 2009 to 97.2 million barrels per day last year, in line with the world’s economic growth. The International Energy Agency forecasts that demand will reach 100 million bpd in 2019. 

Insight in French
Article publié dans La Tribune de Genève online, le 19 juin 2018

It was a time of great change. Over the last 50 years, we have welcomed change even when it meant rethinking what it means to be a bank.

Today's complex and ever changing world is being fuelled by technology which offers exciting investment opportunities.

Last week the US Federal Reserve continued its policy of monetary tightening, increasing its benchmark rate by 25 basis points in contrast to the cautious tone adopted by the European Central Bank and its president, Mario Draghi. As US interest rates rise to combat inflation, investors will be monitoring any signs of overshooting, which may restrict the American economy, fuel volatility and dampen demand for equities.

Our core values are those of sustainability and responsibility. At Lombard Odier, these principles lay at the heart of what we do and we’ve been philanthropists for over 220 years. We want to make a difference.

We are delighted to announce that Lombard Odier has won the PWM WealthTech Europe award for the digital empowerment of relationship managers.

Europe enjoyed decades of unprecedented peace and prosperity after World War Two. 

The rhetoric between the US and Mexico over tariffs and the future of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) may be about to worsen. Investors are questioning whether an almost-certain “centre-left” presidential victory in Mexico next month will further complicate trade with its northern neighbor and most important market. 

Article published in Philanthropy Impact, April 23, 2018
By Dr Maximilian Martin, Global Head of Philanthropy

Of the more than 40 crises that we have overcome in the past two centuries, the period between 1914 and 1945 was undoubtedly the most challenging.

How will technology affect banks over the next five years? Is it a friend or foe? Such were the issues debated at Lombard Odier’s all-day Technology Fair on Thursday, 31 May at its Corraterie headquarters in Geneva.

Italy’s political turmoil, which hasn’t gone away with a new government, has created the third euro-related crisis in less than a decade. Will the country remain a Eurozone member and make good on election pledges to spend its way out of economic stagnation? These still-open questions have driven Italy’s benchmark government bond yields higher and the euro lower as investors assess the odds.

As rethinkers, we quickly realised the burgeoning potential of the Americas. Our founding fathers successfully ventured into this new emerging continent and unearthed the investment potential of the oil, steel and railway industries.

The US dollar (USD) has seen a startling rebound over the last month, with implications across asset classes. As former US Treasury Secretary John Connally once said: “the dollar is our currency, but your problem”. For markets, the problem is working out when and where the rally will end. We believe the gains have occurred for a variety of reasons, some of which are technical, and we expect an eventual tapering off as the market takes a fresh look at fundamentals.

This period of our history is intertwined with the Industrial Revolution. As bold visionaries, we helped shape the progress of these times by financing the railways and investing in technological expansion

Insight in French
Article publié dans La Tribune de Genève online, le 23 mai 2018

Italy’s efforts to build a coalition government out of two largely irreconcilable parties advanced this week as President Sergio Mattarella confirmed Giuseppe Conte’s appointment as Prime Minister. This hands Mr Conte, an academic with no political experience, the job of forming a government that satisfies both the anti-establishment Five Star Movement (M5S) and the right-wing La Lega.