insights.

In February we wrote that while Argentina’s economic path to growth was unlikely to be smooth, it should remain positive. Recent events are proving bumpier than we anticipated.

Argentina is now in the midst of a full-blown currency crisis.

Lombard Odier has been recognised for its achievements in delivering innovation to our clients at The WealthBriefing European Awards for 2018.

Sovereign debt is at its highest level since the financial crisis, according to the International Monetary Fund. After a long period of low interest rates, government debt has reached USD 164 trillion, equivalent to 225% of global GDP in 2016, making the world 12% deeper in debt compared with 2009. 

Article published in Finanz und Wirtschaft, April 28, 2018
By Annika Falkengren, Managing Partner, Lombard Odier Group

Stock market turmoil experienced in late January highlighted the strong link that exists between interest rates and equities, especially when moves on rates are abrupt. Theoretically, the impact of higher nominal rates and inflation on corporate earnings is ambiguous as multiple transmission channels can work in opposing directions. The effect on valuation is more straightforward: higher rates reduce the net present value of expected cash flows.

Lombard Odier explored new ways for philanthropists to benefit society at its Rethink Philanthropy symposium in Zurich on Wednesday, 18 April. Humanitarian, educational and investment experts said the time was ripe for philanthropy to play a key role in tackling social and environmental challenges.

China’s response to escalating trade tensions with the US has emphasised how its role in the global economy has fundamentally changed. We see Beijing as a stabilising force in the later stages of the economic cycle and our positive view underpins some of our key asset allocation positioning.

At its ‘Rethink Philanthropy’ symposium held in Zurich on April 18, Lombard Odier gathered humanitarian, educational and investment leaders to discuss how leveraging the power of science, innovative forms of financing, and data can bring about new solutions to significant social and environmental challenges, and how philanthropy can make the catalytic difference.

As expected, rising uncertainties pertaining to inflation and monetary policy are making for a more volatile financial market environment, in which nimbleness and investment discipline will be key.

Cyclical winds are fading in emerging markets, but the structural case remains valid: imbalances have moderated, foreign currency debt has diminished, and international reserves have swelled.

Consistently positive GDP growth, an exceptionally tight labour market, and steady recovery in consumer prices also make a shift in Bank of Japan policy likely later this year.

Spooked by the Trump administration’s sanctions on Russian individuals and companies, investors are struggling to value Russian assets. While the most immediate turmoil has been as predictable as the Russian government’s reaction is unforeseeable, we believe that it’s more important to step back and look at the historic implications. 

Article published in Le Temps, April 16, 2018
By Hubert Keller, Managing Partner, Lombard Odier Group

The recovery-turned-expansion is firmly in place, even if growth appears to be moderating somewhat from very high levels.

The stage is set for inflation in the US this year: a tight labour market, the traditional lag between GDP growth and inflation, and pro-growth policies being implemented so late in the cycle.

An extension of the positive trend in global trade is the backbone of our pro-risk asset allocation. But how long can the upcycle last? What if trade tensions escalate? 

Three of the world’s leading central banks have sounded a warning call about the risks that climate change poses to the financial system. On this, we believe that investors can no longer afford to treat environmental and other ESG issues as a niche concern in portfolios.

Responsible investing already accounts for more than one in five dollars managed professionally in the US, and studies suggest that the proportion could be almost 53% for European assets. With this growth poised to accelerate, sustainability is quickly becoming a ‘whole portfolio’ affair – and we would encourage investors to think of it as such.

We hold to our scenario of sustained decent growth across the main economic blocs. But while all regions are currently in expansion territory, they are de-synchronized in terms of their phase within the cycle.

In the coming decades, artificial general intelligence could present us with a tightrope to infinity. Will we be prepared for a safe crossing, or do we risk a plunge into oblivion?

Insight in French
Article publié dans La Tribune de Genève online, le 5 avril 2018
Par Sophie Chardon, Stratège cross-asset

On 12 March, the Lombard Odier Rethink Responsible Capital symposium brought together political, business and investment leaders to discuss how our world is changing in the face of significant social and environmental challenges, and how investors can gear their portfolios for this new paradigm.

Total client assets increased by 17% reflecting a relentless focus on clients.

In 2010 Christiana Figueres took on what many considered would be an impossible task. As the former Executive Secretary of the UN Framework for Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) she was responsible for leading the world towards a global agreement on tackling climate change.

Article publié dans Denaris, le 7 mars 2018
Par Laurent Pellet

What is the impact of climate change on the global economy and financial markets?

The US government’s imposition of tariffs on certain metals imports has unnerved the market at a time when most other economic fundamentals look fairly rosy. Our central scenario remains positive, and we believe that the measures introduced are about positioning rather than raw protectionism, however, it is still worth understanding the risks of any escalation.

A sustainability revolution is underway, which will drive economic and investment outcomes over the long term.

On 12 March, the Lombard Odier Rethink Responsible Capital symposium brought together political, business and investment leaders to discuss how our world is changing in the face of significant social and environmental challenges, and how investors can gear their portfolios for this new paradigm.

As Al Gore, former US Vice President and co-founder of Generation Investment Management told the audience during his keynote speech: “The sustainability revolution is the single largest investment opportunity in history.”

As rethinkers, we aspire to bring together innovators, pioneers and change makers to transform the world around us. Our private Rethink Responsible Capital Symposium on March 12, 2018 will welcome Ms. Christiana Figueres, the Executive Secretary of the UN Framework for Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the driving force behind leading the world towards COP21, a global agreement on tackling climate change.

Vous êtes résident Suisse et vous souhaitez financer une résidence principale ou secondaire, ou encore investir dans de l’immobilier locatif résidentiel et/ou commercial. Vous recherchez par conséquent le meilleur partenaire, qui vous propose des solutions hypothécaires ou de crédit ne dépendant pas de ses intérêts et de son bilan, mais plutôt et avant tout des vôtres. La Banque Lombard Odier & Cie SA est, dès lors, votre interlocuteur privilégié.

Article publié dans La Tribune de Genève online, le 12 mars 2018
Par Stéphanie de Torquat, Stratège macro

The political agenda in emerging economies is relatively busy in 2018. We assess the potential impact of the various votes across the regions.

How can a long period of politically induced uncertainty play into Italy’s economic recovery and our investment strategy?

Discover our latest insights in this video featuring our Chief Economist Samy Chaar.

The wave of optimism that has followed the end of the Zuma era must be balanced with a realistic understanding of the economic and social issues that South Africa has faced for a long time. 

Our longstanding history means we have always been committed to preserving heritage and to being a patron of the arts

Vous résidez en Suisse et souhaitez planifier vos avoirs de prévoyance ? Quelles sont les solutions innovantes et personnalisées, adaptées à vos besoins patrimoniaux spécifiques, à vos objectifs de vie, ainsi qu’à ceux de votre famille ?

L’économie nippone affiche des signes de vigueur que la Banque centrale ne devrait pas ignorer très longtemps. Les investisseurs doivent se préparer notamment à l’appréciation du yen.

Article publié dans le magazine Bilan, le 28 février 2018

Caisse de pension surobligatoire, libre passage ou assurance à prime unique : ces solutions, intéressantes fiscalement, sont en plein développement

Article publié dans le magazine Indices, le 26 février 2018

Each family governance structure is unique and adapted to the needs of a given family, and frequently takes the form of a tool called a family constitution. The topic of values and family constitution is a key component of the “governance” section of the Lombard Odier Family Programme.

Italy’s upcoming elections (due to take place on 4 March 2018) have so far generated little concern among market participants as the risks surrounding them appear greatly reduced

Sharp movements in markets have been a wake-up call for complacent investors, but should not have surprised anyone

Le contexte de normalisation des taux est favorable à l'industrie. D'autant que l'évolution des processus associe plus efficacement humains et machines.

Interview de Stéphane Monier dans L'Agefi du 13 février 2018

Article publié dans l'Agefi online, le 6 février 2018
Par Samy Chaar, Chef économiste

We're honoured to have been commended four times at the “WealthBriefing Swiss Awards 2018", for our services to private banking and to our clients. We're proud to have been rewarded for our commitment to the industry, responsible capital and for keeping our clients at the heart of everything we do. This is why we continue to "Rethink Everything" and help our clients achieve their ambitions. The ceremony was held in Geneva on Thursday 8 February.

As well as structural inefficiencies, lacklustre hedge fund performance in recent years can be attributed to a combination of low interest rates, depressed volatility, high inter- and intra-market correlations and the impact of valuation-insensitive investors. Each of these cyclical headwinds is showing clear signs of easing, and HF performance has already improved across the board in step with this changing environment. As the monetary policy environment continues to normalise and volatility picks up, we see a stronger case for HF allocation.

We are reaffirming our constructive stance and raising our targets on most commodities

With Argentina poised for possible inclusion in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index this year, investing in the market now could offer strong rewards – but beware the bumps along the way, writes Stéphane Monier.

Article publié dans La Tribune de Genève online, le 1 février 2018
Par Stéphanie de Torquat, Stratège macro

At the heart of private banking lies understanding. Understanding the needs of clients, being creative and the ambition to turn the wishes of an individual into a reality.

At Lombard Odier, solving the world’s most pressing social and environmental challenges, as an investor or philanthropist, goes hand-in-hand with strong financial performance

After two years of economic difficulties triggered by trembling oil prices and international sanctions, we believe Russia’s economy is firmly on the road to recovery with real GDP growth expected to have reached 1.7% in 2017, according to the World Bank. While there are, of course, challenges that the economy must overcome, we forecast that the positive momentum that began in 2017 will build over the year to come.