Thematic investing in a multipolar world

The Middle East conflict reminds us that geopolitical events can reprice financial markets overnight – and reveal deeper structural trends. In a world of increasing trade fragmentation, conflict and policy uncertainty, governments and companies are prioritising strategic autonomy and resilience. This is accelerating societal transformations, and strengthening the case for long‑term thematic investing.

In 2024, we launched our thematic equity investment framework, rethink investments. Our thesis remains that deep societal transformations create the opportunity to identify companies likely to exhibit greater earnings strength. These transformations change where capital is directed, which business models are supported, and where earnings can compound through cycles. They can be integrated into strategic, high conviction equity investments for long-term investors. As equity markets hit fresh highs even in the face of heightened uncertainty, identifying these trends allows us to look through the noise and focus on long-term value creation.

Previously, three societal transformations – demographic, technological, and environmental – led us to identify six high-conviction equity investment themes: rethink longevity, new gen, technology, net zero, nature, and infrastructure. The intervening years have revealed a fourth transformation: the rise of a multipolar global order. This new order is characterised by less cooperative, more competitive, and even conflictual international relations.

Deep societal transformations create the opportunity to identify companies likely to exhibit greater earnings strength

It has also become clear that the transition towards a sustainable economy must consider climate, biodiversity, resources, and social systems together. Countries are seeking to build resilience, and are viewing sustainability as a source of competitive advantage. Accordingly we have merged the net zero and nature themes into a broader, more holistic narrative that captures a wider universe of investment opportunities – we call it rethink transition.

Finally, periods of conflict, whether military or economic, tend to crystallise vulnerabilities and act as catalysts. In the new world order, international relations are more opportunistic, creating a longer-lasting need for security and strategic autonomy. This gives rise to a new investment theme: rethink security.

Overall, this gives us six structural thematic trends in 2026: rethink longevity, new gen, technology, infrastructure, transition and security.

Security: the new foundations of power

As critical resources, food and water are core to security. In the current Middle East conflict, this has been underscored by the vulnerability of fertiliser supply transit through the Strait of Hormuz, and of regional desalination plants. Precision agriculture can reduce dependence on fertiliser, while shorter supply chains and quality food producers can build more enduring food security. Water stress, and contamination concerns, can benefit companies active in testing, treatment and recycling water, and in efficient and safe water distribution.

Health and energy are the next security priorities. To ensure the former, the prevention and detection of, and the response to, infectious diseases, pandemics, bioterrorism, and environmental disasters are crucial. This includes surveillance systems to warn of outbreaks, vaccine capacity, and the mass response capacity of health services. Energy and power security rely on increased domestic energy production, including more decentralised residential renewable resources and embedded power plants in energy-heavy industries.

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Finally, cyber and homeland security have risen in prominence. Cybersecurity software (now powered by artificial intelligence), visual recognition, and secure encryption enable the security essential in a digitalised world. Video surveillance, communication systems, air defence, anti-mining robots and capabilities, as well as critical minerals, form the bedrock of effective homeland protection.

Cyber and homeland security have risen in prominence

Our rethink investments themes reinforced

Deepening economic divisions, geopolitical tensions, and less predictable policymaking are becoming defining features of the global economy. This has reinforced the relevance of long-term thematic investing – and our conviction in our longevity, new gen, technology, transition, and infrastructure themes. These themes remain anchored in enduring demand, strategic necessity, and domestic resilience. Together, they highlight pools of conviction and opportunity for long-term investors.

In a fragmented geopolitical environment, longevity-linked assets stand out as being domestically anchored, non-discretionary, and policy-supported. They hence offer a measure of resilience and insulation from trade and military conflicts. ‘New Gen’-driven demand provides a rare growth engine that is independent of these strains, creating investment opportunities tied to demographics, culture, and health rather than cross-border trade. Here, emerging markets are at the heart of future consumer growth.

Longevity-linked assets stand out as being domestically anchored, non-discretionary, and policy-supported

Technology investment is increasingly centred on sovereignty, productivity, and automation – making AI, robotics, and digital financial infrastructure economically essential and geopolitically strategic. AI has moved towards executing multi‑step tasks within workflows, with limited human oversight, supporting the build‑out of data centres, power infrastructure and enterprise software ecosystems.

Infrastructure offers scalable, inflation-shielded investment opportunities backed by government spending, long-term contracts, and critical national interests. Space infrastructure is also entering a new expansion cycle, in which private capital will play a pivotal role.

At the same time, the transition to a more sustainable economic system has become a security imperative, unlocking long-term investment opportunities in energy independence, critical resources, food resilience, and industrial competitiveness rather than with a purely environmental agenda.

Space infrastructure is entering a new expansion cycle, in which private capital will play a pivotal role

Implementing thematic equity investments in portfolios

We map all six investment themes onto stocks of companies that are materially exposed to their underlying earnings drivers. These can then become strategic components of equity portfolios, complementing regional and sectoral exposures. In our sustainable multi-asset investment portfolios, thematic equity investments represent a larger portion than in traditional portfolios.

These thematic building blocks are designed to work across cycles and economic regimes. In practice, that can bring three advantages. The first is to diversify equity risk. The second is to help investors stay disciplined during periods of volatility. The third is to seek long‑term value creation, by backing areas where policy priorities, technological change and societal demand reinforce each other.

Our rethink investment themes thus offer a disciplined way to express long‑term convictions in portfolios. This is increasingly relevant in a world where dependencies are being repriced, resilience is becoming an economic advantage, and policy priorities are shifting capital flows.