As 2025 draws to a close, it is clear that this has been a year marked by paradoxes.
It has been a year of opportunities and threats. In fields as diverse as life sciences, climate change, new technologies, and artificial intelligence, major innovations have emerged, all representing significant investment opportunities.
Uncertainty has characterised 2025. Geopolitical tensions, armed conflicts, tariff announcements, and fiscal and monetary policy have all posed challenges. Once synonymous with opportunity, globalisation is now revealing its weaknesses. Yesterday’s safe havens have become today’s sources of risk.
At Lombard Odier, we aim to find balance through movement. If we have learned one key principle in our 229 years of existence, it is this: stability is not static. It is constantly created. By supporting our clients and rethinking the world around us, we remain true to our primary mission: helping clients preserve and grow their wealth over the long term, across market cycles.
Instability and yet solid market returns defined 2025. Policy uncertainty, geopolitics, and public debt concerns have reshaped the landscape, yet markets have remained resilient. Many uncertainties will persist into 2026. The global economy should continue expanding in 2026, albeit slowly, as trade adjusts to US import tariffs.
In the US, monetary policy and corporate investment will remain supportive. The Federal Reserve will likely pause its rate cuts through much of the first half of 2026 before easing conditions later in the year. However, policy uncertainties and tariffs will continue to weigh on growth, and the labour market will remain pivotal to US and global economic prospects.
The euro area should maintain current growth levels next year, supported by steadier business confidence, improved government-led investments, lower interest rates, and fewer trade uncertainties. Public finances will remain in focus in developed economies, though higher savings rates among corporates and households should reduce imminent debt-crisis risks.
In Switzerland, a recent US trade deal has improved the country’s outlook, and we have raised our 2026 growth forecast to 1.2%. The Swiss National Bank should keep policy rates at zero, with negative rates reserved as a last resort.
China’s shift towards greater self-sufficiency and technological leadership will continue. Emerging economies’ prospects have also improved, with fewer structural imbalances and strengthened foreign reserves, institutions, and corporates.
Geopolitical instabilities, including US–China rivalry, conflicts, and tariffs, will persist, yet markets have largely looked past them to focus on fundamentals. Investors will monitor any political interference in Fed policy and the US midterms, which could shift legislative power.
Despite volatility, markets delivered a second year of strong performance in 2025, with equities and gold setting new records. As we move into 2026, we are carefully aligning our portfolio exposures to unlock opportunities in a shifting global landscape. We overweight global equities, expressed primarily via emerging market stocks where valuations and earnings growth are attractive. In fixed income, we favour emerging market bonds in hard currency, which combine attractive yields with resilient fundamentals. The US dollar should weaken through 2026 as the Fed eases policy, while most other major central banks have ended their rate-cutting cycles. With lower real US interest rates and strong central bank and investor demand, gold should remain supported in 2026.
A meaningful slowdown, perhaps triggered by a delayed tariff impact or weakening US labour market, would challenge our stance. Conversely, AI adoption could drive productivity gains, boosting growth. Stronger growth would mean a more positive outlook for equities, limit bond yield declines, and support the US dollar. Overall, if the world economy continues to navigate policy uncertainty successfully, growth and market momentum are likely to persist. We remain invested and vigilant.
To mark its 20th anniversary, the Fondation Lombard Odier launched an ambitious new programme of international initiatives combining climate protection with tangible benefits for society. The programme will involve setting up new partnerships with organisations such as the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the Zoological Society of London (ZSL), and Giving to Amplify Earth Action Awards (GAEA), with the aim of advancing innovation and climate data use, and strengthening protections for biodiversity and areas threatened by climate change.
Our philanthropic advisory activities continue to grow. Since 2008, Fondation Philanthropia – an umbrella foundation involved in our clients’ philanthropic projects – has helped our clients bring their projects to life through experienced professional guidance.
Credit: Giulio Ghirardi
This autumn, we were thrilled to welcome clients to our new headquarters on the shores of Lake Geneva – a moment of great pride for us. By bringing all our teams together under one roof, we can offer clients seamless access to the full breadth of our expertise.
This milestone marks an important chapter in our history, reaffirming both our confidence in the future and our deep roots in Geneva and Switzerland. Honouring our heritage, we have designed a building that reflects our legacy while creating a distinctive and welcoming experience for our clients.
We look forward to welcoming you.
We warmly thank you for your trust and support over the past year, and we send you, your families, and your loved ones our best wishes for a happy, successful, and healthy 2026.
This is a marketing communication issued by Bank Lombard Odier & Co Ltd (hereinafter “Lombard Odier”).
It is not intended for distribution, publication, or use in any jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, or use would be unlawful, nor is it aimed at any person or entity to whom it would be unlawful to address such a marketing communication.
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