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    The environmental implications of 2024’s elections

    The environmental implications of 2024’s elections

    2024’s elections will be pivotal for economies around the world, as around half of the globe’s population heads to the ballot box.1 The way the votes fall also has the potential to push clean energy and environmental policy in starkly different directions.2

    The clearest case is perhaps in the United States, where voting takes place on 5 November. Donald Trump undid dozens of environmental bills during his first term3, including the Clean Power Plan4 and a requirement that oil and gas companies calculate the “social cost of carbon”5. If he returns to the White House, Mr Trump may repeat this approach and pick apart the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) that includes over USD 670 billion in federal spending and tax incentives for the energy transition6.

    If he returns to the White House, Donald Trump may pick apart the Inflation Reduction Act that includes over USD 670 billion in federal spending and tax incentives for the energy transition

    Rather than upending transition spending completely, this may only alter the balance. The IRA’s incentives for domestic manufacturing have created what the International Monetary Fund describes as “green trade tensions”7, by encouraging business with US rather than foreign companies. The possibility of firms relocating to the US to take advantage of these allowances has been seen as a threat to clean energy spending in emerging economies and other markets. 

    Read also: Geopolitical risks


    European Union elections: possible environmental outcomes

    European Parliament elections take place on 6-9 June, with opinion polls anticipating a shift towards right-wing parties. There is the possibility of a populist right coalition holding a majority for the first time.8 Such an outcome could steer the bloc’s environmental policy in a different direction – although there are signs this is happening already, with recent farmer protests leading the European Commission to reverse proposals to halve pesticide use by 2030.9

    A populist right coalition could hold a majority in the European Parliament for the first time. This could steer the bloc’s environmental policy in a different direction

    There are also wider voter concerns about the personal costs involved in meeting transition targets10, despite widespread recognition of the need for climate change action11. On the fiscal front, the European Left party wants to get rid of rules governing national budgets, on the grounds that they are overly restrictive and stymie spending on social and environmental spending.12

    India’s elections and tech

    This year’s elections will directly affect around four billion people. Yet one third of this global electorate lives in just one country. India’s 1.4 billion people are expected to remain under the leadership of Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party after voting in April or May.13

    India’s government is supporting the country’s tech sector… exports are an area of focus, and the International Energy Agency says India could become a leader in battery storage

    Mr Modi has said that India will achieve “developed nation” status by 2047.14 This requires a shift towards a more service-led, knowledge-based economy, as well as advanced manufacturing. The government is supporting the country’s tech sector. India’s Chief Economic Advisor recently said that exports are an area of focus15, and the International Energy Agency says India could become a leader in battery storage16.

    Read also: Green tech surge will fuel ‘big profits’ for investors


    UK elections and green energy spending

    The UK has to hold a national election by 28 January 2025, and is expected to do so in the second half of this year17. The opposition Labour Party, which leads opinion polls, recently dropped a plan to invest USD 35 billion in green energy, although it says it remains committed to a “Green Prosperity Plan”18 and may put in place higher taxes to fund investments in public services.

    Read also: A blueprint for thriving in a changing world

    This year’s votes will have implications for investors, and we continue to monitor risks and provide updated perspectives and scenarios. As the elections come and go, policies will change, but our focus remains unchanged: creating sustainable value for our clients and preserving their wealth over the long term.

    Visit our new Elections page for more insights on the implications of elections around the world in 2024.


    2024 Elections: 12 Global Races to Watch for Economic, Market Issues (
    As big 2024 elections loom, what's at stake for climate action? | Context
    The Trump Administration Rolled Back More Than 100 Environmental Rules. Here’s the Full List. - The New York Times (
    What is the Trump administration’s track record on the environment? | Brookings
    Chart: Trump Administration Reversed 100 Environmental Rules | Statista
    US Election: Could Trump Unravel Biden's IRA? | Energy Intelligence
    Green Trade Tensions (
    A sharp right turn: A forecast for the 2024 European Parliament elections (
    EU Commission chief to withdraw the contested pesticide regulation – Euractiv
    10 People in major industrialised nations support compensating low-income countries affected by climate change (
    11 Climate change - July 2023 - - Eurobarometer survey (
    12 Post-Covid fiscal rules: MEPs want EU countries to have more control | Topics | European Parliament (
    13 Decoding India’s 2024 Election Contest - Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
    14 India Rising: Five springboards to developed nation status by 2047: PwC
    15 Government Releases 'The Indian Economy: A Review' Report (
    16 India Energy Outlook 2021 – Analysis - IEA
    17 What do we know about when the UK election will be? | Reuters
    18 Labour confirms £28bn green investment pledge has been scrapped (

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