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Sterling: bigger worries than negative rates
investment insights

Sterling: bigger worries than negative rates

Will negative interest rates become a reality in the UK? While sterling screens undervalued against most currencies in trade-weighted terms, we don’t think that negative rates will impact the British pound much. But Brexit could.

Stress testing British exceptionalism
investment insights

Stress testing British exceptionalism

Late into lockdown, the UK is emerging to its deepest recession in 300 years with the additional challenge of Brexit.

US-China tensions make a comeback
investment insights

US-China tensions make a comeback

Fundamentally, the US dollar should weaken given extreme overvaluation. However, renewed US-China trade tensions suggests that several G10 and emerging market currencies will face significant headwinds.

Covid-19 vaccines, sprinting for solutions
investment insights

Covid-19 vaccines, sprinting for solutions

While awaiting a Covid-19 vaccine, the world strives to improve logistics and hospital capacity. A second wave could now be better managed.

Ventilating economies with intensive care
investment insights

Ventilating economies with intensive care

As central banks attempt to ventilate their Covid-19-stricken economies, we anticipate a lengthy period of sluggish inflation, setting a path for interest rates and financial assets for the year ahead.

COVID-19: Daily Dashboard
investment insights

COVID-19: Dashboard

Our weekly dashboard offers insight into public health measures, monetary policy, fiscal stimulus and infection rates. Discover more on global de-confinement measures, emerging markets and sector takeaways. 

The euro area constitutional challenges and potential revival of US-China tensions: FX implications and risks

The German court’s ruling on the ECB’s quantitative easing programme has inflicted some short-term damage to the investor sentiment and trade tensions have resurfaced. We review our FX forecasts to reflect this new reality.

Poor neighbours: Europe’s mounting north-south divide

The Covid-19 crisis has highlighted philosophical differences in the EU that are not about whether the bloc’s states can afford to support one another, but whether they should. 

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