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Fighting fit? Germany and Switzerland, a tale of two exporters

Germany, Switzerland, two export-dependent economies with varying fortunes. While Germany’s economy has come close to recession, despite a weak euro and needs concerted investment in the country’s infrastructure, Switzerland’s exporters have proven resilient and adapted to a strong franc.

Global trade disruption, escalating as the US applies more tariffs, remains the single greatest threat to the world economy. It increasingly looks like the wrong weapon and the wrong target.

The European Central Bank has started to acknowledge the adverse impact of negative interest rates on banks. Can the eurozone’s monetary authority implement more easing policies at this stage? In our view, the ECB will most likely focus on TLTROs and a tiered reserve system.

CIO Flash:  Italian politics again test eurozone rules

Faced with a choice between backtracking on election pledges and further destabilising Italy’s coalition government or a fight with the European Commission over budget deficits, the Italian government looks set for confrontation with the eurozone’s guardians.

Why the hurdle for a major CNY devaluation remains high

While investors might be concerned about prospects for a yuan devaluation, we believe that the bar is set high for such a move. Opting for the currency stability seems like a more plausible scenario for China. Find out why in our latest investment strategy bulletin.

What do the EU elections mean for markets? In our latest investment strategy video, we analyse the outcome and shed light on the next risk events, Brexit and US-China trade tensions.

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European Elections – On Steady Ground

The European elections took place but the fear of a wave of “populist” parties emerging, in a way that would alter the path of European politics, has failed to materialise. The results suggest that the EU two party majority might have been broken and anti-establishment parties did make gains but were quite limited. Read the full article here here.

Emerging Market elections renew three reform mandates

Three emerging democracies, India, Indonesia and South Africa, have returned incumbent leaders to office, delivering opportunities for reforms. Once the geopolitics between the US and China are resolved, we believe that there will be opportunities for investors to re-build positions in emerging market assets.