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    COP27 – what to expect? Three hot topics for a critical climate summit

    COP27 – what to expect? Three hot topics for a critical climate summit
    Stéphane Monier - Chief Investment Officer<br/> Lombard Odier Private Bank

    Stéphane Monier

    Chief Investment Officer
    Lombard Odier Private Bank

    Key takeaways

    • Keeping the global temperature rise to 1.5°C is looking increasingly hard, but could be the highest profile metric by which COP27 will be judged
    • Funding climate adaptation and compensating poorer nations for loss and damage will be a key focus. More innovative ideas, like Germany’s global shield against climate risks, will be needed
    • The energy crisis, government policies and technological advancements are accelerating the shift to renewables. Moves towards more realistic carbon pricing and greater standardisation and regulation of carbon offsets would be welcome
    • We focus on the companies providing solutions to the sustainability transition and those leading their peers in decarbonising. This helps us mitigate portfolio risk and seek sources of potential outperformance.

    The annual UN Climate Conference, COP27, will take place in Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt, from 6-18 November. It will voice an urgent need to implement stronger emission reduction plans, and shine a greater spotlight on the needs of the developing world. Below we outline three key areas of focus.


    1. Cutting emissions and keeping 1.5°C alive

    The last Conference of the Parties (COP26) in Glasgow made solid progress in some areas of climate action after years of stalling, with new pledges to phase out coal power, limit deforestation and methane emissions. Crucially, the Glasgow Climate Pact kept the ambition of limiting global warming to 1.5°C alive – at least on paper – as many countries set out new or updated emissions targets, and committed to revisit and strengthen them by September 2022.

    Success here will determine whether we avoid catastrophic warming that alters life on earth. Yet just 12% of countries (23 of 197) met the September 2022 deadline with revised climate plans. Many current pledges lack detailed implementation steps and annual reduction targets, which will become more crucial as the 2030 deadline to halve emissions draws nearer. A UN assessment published end-October concluded there is “no credible pathway” to keep the global temperature rise to 1.5°C. Current policies point to a 2.8°C rise by this century’s close, with 2.4-2.6°C if all pledges to date were to be implemented in full. A 1.1°C rise has already occurred, notes the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

    There has been some progress this year: Australia’s new government is back at the climate table, and India has set more challenging emissions targets. The compounding forces driving the sustainability transition – changing consumer behaviour, investor pressure, regulation, and new technologies – are bringing fresh scrutiny and solutions. The independent Science-based targets initiative (SBTi), for example, has become the gold standard for corporate net-zero targets, successfully channelling media and investor attention to drive change. COP27 will now shine the media spotlight on countries’ plans, to act as a similar catalyst. Progress here will be a key metric by which the summit will be judged.

    The Science-based targets initiative (SBTi) is successfully channelling media and investor attention on corporate net-zero targets; COP27 must shine the spotlight on countries’ plans to drive change


    2. Spotlight on the developing world

    As evidence of the climate emergency mounts, discussions at COP27 could be particularly heated. This year has seen devastating droughts in Kenya, a third of Pakistan flooded, the hottest European summer in 500 years, and a group of island nations asking for a new home when theirs sink underwater. Climate demonstrations have risen. With a new African presidency, this COP’s focus will be on a ‘just’ transition. G20 nations account for 80% of global emissions, but the largest damage often falls on the poorest nations. A 2009 pledge of USD 100 billion a year by rich nations to help them deal with the climate crisis has not materialised. Existing funding has been criticised for focussing not on grants, but on loans with few concessions from market rates, and to middle-income rather than the poorest nations.

    Amid the food and energy crisis, there will be a new urgency to talks around increasing funding, finding new financing models and compensating developing nations for ‘loss and damage’ incurred to date. Global taxes on carbon, air travel, shipping, or financial transactions have been proposed by vulnerable nations to address the impact of floods and wildfires, and develop early warning schemes. UN Secretary General António Guterres has called for windfall taxes on energy firms. The idea of a form of ‘climate reparations’ is still in its comparative infancy, but Denmark, Scotland, and Belgium’s Wallonia region have all pledged small, but symbolically important funds to help impacted communities. The EU is also working on a package of funding proposals to help victims of climate disasters.

    Meanwhile, Germany has proposed a ‘global shield against climate risks’ to be discussed at COP27. This would fund better social security and disaster reserves by drawing heavily on insurance and reinsurance solutions, where Germany has substantial corporate expertise. More creative ideas such as these, which draw on both public and private finance streams, will be needed.

    More creative ideas, which draw on both public and private finance streams, will be needed

    3. Energy and carbon pricing hold the key

    COP27 takes place against the backdrop of the Russia/Ukraine war, which has radically redrawn the world’s energy networks and policies. Energy is a dedicated focus subject for the summit, and is the elephant in the room in any climate discussions: energy production and consumption make up around two-thirds of global emissions, according to the World Economic Forum, with the bulk still fossil-fuel based. This proportion has changed discouragingly little in the past decade, yet today there are some potential reasons for greater optimism. While the energy crisis sparked by Russian actions in Ukraine has resulted in a boost to coal power short-term, longer-term it has accelerated the shift from fossil fuels towards renewables, in part as higher fossil fuel costs create greater incentives for green solutions. The REPowerEU plan frontloads sustainable energy initiatives; the US Inflation Reduction Act contains around USD 370 billion in clean energy funding. Both could be catalysts for greater private sector investment.

    Higher fossil fuel costs create greater incentives for green solutions

    Of course, amid persistent inflation and rising debt costs, the appeal of large-scale green government spending has waned. Yet technological advancements now mean solar and wind power are cost-competitive with coal and gas when building new infrastructure. New national policies in developed countries will see clean energy investments rise 50% from current levels by 2030, to some USD 2 trillion, estimates the International Energy Agency. Encouragingly, it is in developing countries where some of the greatest potential lies, and where some of the biggest strides are being made. India has met national clean energy production targets early; Namibia and El Salvador have some of the highest percentages of solar power in their energy mix. Smaller nations such as Eritrea and Rwanda are also getting onboard. COP27 can help share best practices, and facilitate better technology transfer so that developing nations can benefit from new solutions.

    Technological advancements now mean solar and wind power are cost-competitive with coal and gas when building new infrastructure

    Another area of focus for the summit will be more realistic carbon pricing that captures the cost of emissions and helps push capital towards green solutions. The IMF estimates carbon prices or emissions trading schemes still only cover around a third of global emissions, while the current average price of USD 6 per ton must rise nearer USD 75 by 2030. COP27 is also expected to discuss the issue of carbon offsets, or financing activities that neutralise emissions or remove them from the atmosphere. Here, endorsing greater scrutiny of activities, more standardisation and regulation by the Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market, would be a solid step forward.

    This year’s COP27 takes place amid less fanfare than COP26, with a weaker macroeconomic backdrop and a world struggling with high inflation and the impact of the Ukraine war on food and energy security. Yet in a looming climate crisis, we must seize every opportunity for change. Meanwhile, the forces driving the sustainability transition continue to accelerate, providing certainty at a time of great uncertainty. Our role, on behalf of our clients, is to focus on the companies providing solutions to this transition and those leading their peers in decarbonising. This provides us with the chance to both mitigate portfolio risk and seek sources of potential outperformance.

    Important information

    This is a marketing communication issued by Bank Lombard Odier & Co Ltd (hereinafter “Lombard Odier”).
    It is not intended for distribution, publication, or use in any jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, or use would be unlawful, nor is it aimed at any person or entity to whom it would be unlawful to address such a marketing communication.
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