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E-bikes are gearing up for growth
The humble bicycle has changed in design many times since it first appeared in Germany in 1817. Those first models had no pedals. Adding these and other ergonomic improvements over the years has enabled the bike to remain not just popular, but also practical. The addition of batteries to create e-bikes follows the same spirit, and is leading to a fresh surge of interest in cycling.
E-bikes make up 30% of the more than 160 million bikes sold every year1, meaning they have a market share more than double that of electric vehicles, which accounted for 14% of vehicle sales in 20222.
A further acceleration is on the way, according to our analysis, which sees e-bikes totalling 40-50% of all bike sales by 20303. The growth and penetration rate will vary by region. China and Europe are pedalling fastest, followed by parts of North America.
This uptake in e-bikes and other micromobility solutions is closely linked to rising urbanisation, according to several university studies. With 70% of the global population expected to live in cities by 2050, up from 50% today, there could be a long and promising road ahead for e-bikes5.
Read also: 5 early stages energy storage solutions that could help underpin the electric economy
The benefits of e-bikes
People in cities are increasingly turning away from private cars in favour of two-wheeled micromobility options, or public transport or taxis6. This is good news for the battle against road transport pollution. It could cut global private car emissions by over 6% compared with 20237, as well as reducing the USD 1 trillion of harmful health impacts caused by road transport emissions8.
The elevation of the e-bike creates an interesting investment opportunity. Government backing for micromobility supports this, particularly in Europe. Many countries are looking to make legislative changes encouraging e-bike use, from investing in better cycle lanes and more bike racks9, to providing subsidy schemes for bike purchases10. Urban traffic restrictions such as low-emission zones are also driving some people away from private cars.
Read also: Sustainable tourism critical to ecological development
The evolution of the electric bike
E-bikes began their journey not in cities but off-road. Mountain bikers and other recreational users saw the advantages of going electric, but the models they used did not necessarily suit city living. The launch of more modern and elegant e-bikes has changed that, combining panache with practicality.
Europe’s biggest e-bike market is now Germany, where sales make up around 90% of the mountain bike market and almost half of all bicycle sales11. We expect demand for recreational e-bikes to remain strong in Europe, and we also see it starting to gain a foothold in parts of North America.
Better suited to city living
Urban bike-share schemes have helped introduce people to e-bikes. Options to rent these bikes by the minute or to pay according to distance travelled has allowed people to try them out at minimal expense, and more people are now using them for everyday journeys12.
Read also: ‘Prosumer’ power: the rapid rise of decentralised energy
Couriers are also seeing the benefits of e-bikes in helping them quickly move packages and takeaways around cities. In densely populated urban areas, e-bikes have been shown to make deliveries up to 60% faster than those made by car or van over short distances13.
Another draw for e-bikes is their lower running costs compared with other modes of transport, with little maintenance required. They can also reduce the chances of users facing fines, as they can use bus lanes in many cities and are often unable to exceed speed limits.
Global e-bike sales on track to double
China is the biggest market for e-bikes in volume terms, with sales approaching 40 million in 2023. Europe is in second place on just under 7 million, but it is the biggest market in value terms, with a preference for high-end models driving revenues to over USD 17 billion last year14.
We see global e-bike sales doubling by 2030 thanks to demand growth in these key markets, as well as in North America15. Our initial analysis shows that the biggest beneficiary of this could be component suppliers rather than bike manufacturers themselves, given the highly concentrated market for e-bike parts.
1 Historical patterns and sustainability implications of worldwide bicycle ownership and use | Communications Earth & Environment (nature.com)
2 holistiQ Research (2023)
3 holistiQ Research (2023)
4 Historical patterns and sustainability implications of worldwide bicycle ownership and use | Communications Earth & Environment (nature.com)
5 Traffic jams, pollution, road crashes: Can technology end the woes of urban transport? (worldbank.org)
6 Year in Sport 2022 (strava.com)
7 IEA’s NZE scenario (2023)
8 A global snapshot of the air pollution-related health impacts of transportation sector emissions in 2010 and 2015 (ccacoalition.org)
9 Making-the-Economic-Case-for-Cycling_6-13-22.pdf (itdp.org)
10 Juicy EU subsidies for bikes & ebikes, per country list (ebike24.com)
11 Communication with sector expert
12 Year in Sport 2022 (strava.com)
13 Cargo bikes deliver faster and cleaner than vans, study finds | Road transport | The Guardian
14 holistiQ Research (2023)
15 holistiQ Research (2023)
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