COVID-19: Daily Dashboard

investment insights

COVID-19: Daily Dashboard

Three levels of response to contain the current shock to H1 2020, limit defaults, and avoid an unemployment spiral
 

  • A public health response: to contain the spread of the virus, and gain time so that cases do not overwhelm hospital capacity 
     
  • A monetary response: to avoid a funding shortage and ensure liquidity at a cheap borrowing cost
     
  • A fiscal response: perhaps in the form of tax rebates or income transfers, to partially shield economic actors from the temporary blow.
     

New infections, total infections, total deaths, fiscal stimulus and monetary policy as at 05.04.2020

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* LO estimate or reported figures
Sources: Bloomberg, IMF, World Bank, Lombard Odier calculations

Public health

  • In a sign of ongoing improvement, the growth rate of Covid-19 confirmed cases eased globally to 6%, the slowest pace since 10 March. Importantly, the decline was widespread amongst most of the worst affected countries. In absolute terms, world infection cases rose by 72,000, to 1.275 million, the lowest increase since 30 March. The death daily toll worldwide also declined to 4,700, reducing the daily percentage change to 7.3%, the lowest since mid-March. Uncertainty clearly remains but this latest information suggests that the global epidemic curve closer to plateauing
     

  • Several European countries have begun preparations to ease strict lockdowns. According to the Financial Times, France, Spain, Belgium and Finland have set up specialist committees to start designing gradual exits. Nonetheless, this is likely to be a long process in order to minimize the probability and/or impact of a second epidemic wave  
     

  • In Italy, the number of daily new cases maintained its decline, with 4,316 new cases reported on 5 March. This corresponds to a daily percentage increase of 3.1%, the slowest pace since consistent data collection. Furthermore, the death toll has fallen for three consecutive days, recording 525 new fatalities on 5 April, a level not seen since 19 March
     

In a sign of ongoing improvement, the growth rate of Covid-19 confirmed cases eased globally to 6%, the slowest pace since 10 March.
Importantly, the decline was widespread amongst most of the worst affected countries
  • In Spain, the number of deaths also fell for a third straight day to 674. Lockdown measures have been extended until at least 25 April
     

  • In France, which now distinguishes deaths in hospitals from deaths in retirement homes or other medical facilities since 1 April, new daily cases and fatalities in hospitals slowed to 1,873 and 357 respectively on 5 April
     

  • In Germany, the number of total cases exceeded the 100,000 mark on 5 April, yet the nation counts a fatality rate as low as 1.6%, most likely attributable to is healthcare system and testing strategy. The daily change of news cases and deaths also declined relative to previous days
     

  • On the other hand, the UK experienced a rise in its daily infection rate to 14% from 9.8% the day before, while the mortality rate has now reached 10%. The UK has been a clear laggard relative to other developed countries affected by the virus. The numbers tested daily varies between 10,000 and 15,000, far behind Germany’s 50,000. Consequently, many undetected cases and the lagging nature of deaths are likely to have considerably inflated the fatality rate 
     

  • In the US, total confirmed cases rose to 337,600, although here as well the daily growth rate declined to 8.2%. New deaths stood at 1,147. Improvements in the latest numbers were particularly notable in New York which has been the epicentre of the epidemic so far in the US
     

  • In China, imported cases represent nearly all of the daily new symptomatic cases, with Hubei province reporting only two new cases in the last 7 days. Authorities feel sufficiently confident to normalise control and transportation through Wuhan on 8 April. Provinces have been progressively lowering emergency levels since-mid March 
     

  • On 5 March, South Korea reported its lowest daily new increase since late February 
     

  • Other countries in Asia have been tweaking their responses, due to their more worrying, steepening epidemic curves. Japan, having seen a substantial acceleration in the number of daily new cases last week, is set to declare a national emergency on 7 April. Singapore announced a de facto partial lockdown 3 April with the order to close non-essential businesses and schools’ in-person teaching. Nonetheless, it is worth emphasizing that case fatality rates in these countries have been substantially lower than those of the US and Europe, and their hospital systems remain calm.
     

Other countries in Asia have been tweaking their responses, due to their more worrying, steepening epidemic curves…

Monetary and fiscal measures

  • China: The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) announced a targeted reserve required ratio (RRR) cut on 3 April, cutting the measure by one percentage point for rural financial institutions and city commercial banks, the third move this year
     

  • In Switzerland, the Federal Council proposed a doubling of the loan facility (from CHF20 billion to CHF40 bn) that was put into effect two weeks ago, given the demand shown already that has seen CHF14.3 bn approved as of 3 April
     

  • The Japanese government will release its economic stimulus package in two phases in response to the coronavirus pandemic. The first phase of measures is designed to prevent job losses and bankruptcies while the second phase will be implemented once the spread of the virus is contained, to support a V-shaped recovery.
     

 

Economic impact

  • On 3 April, March nonfarm payrolls revealed job losses of 713,000 in the US. This was the first negative number since 2010 and was significantly worse than expectations 
     

  • Similarly, the eurozone’s Purchasing Manufacturer’s Index (PMI) recorded an historically low 29.7 
     

  • These numbers extend the damage cause by the global pandemic. It is worth noting however that they are the inevitable result of public policy measures that are aimed to control the spread of Covid-19
     

  • In contrast to the macro data seen in Europe and the US, a sharp recovery is underway in China where the epidemic hit first but was also controlled earliest. The Caixin China PMI Composite rose from 27.5 in February to 46.7 in March.
     

In contrast to the macro data seen in Europe and the US, a sharp recovery is underway in China where the epidemic hit first but was also controlled earliest.

Portfolio positioning

  • The Investment Committee decided to reduce exposure to emerging market debt in hard currency across all profiles to further enhance the liquidity 
     

  • We will hold the sale proceeds in cash
     

The Investment Committee decided to reduce exposure to emerging market debt in hard currency across all profiles to further enhance the liquidity
  • Following the recent relief rally, the committee rebalanced the equity allocation in line with the tactical asset allocation targets. We re-adjust the equity exposures to take account of the market drift 
     

  • We are buying some protection by implementing put spreads to cover parts of the equity notional.  
     

New infections as of 05.04.2020

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Wichtige Hinweise.

Die vorliegende Marketingmitteilung wurde von der Bank Lombard Odier & Co AG (nachstehend “Lombard Odier”) herausgegeben. Sie ist weder für die Abgabe, Veröffentlichung oder Verwendung in Rechtsordnungen bestimmt, in denen eine solche Abgabe, Veröffentlichung oder Verwendung rechtswidrig ist, noch richtet sie sich an Personen oder Rechtsstrukturen, an die eine entsprechende

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