MARKET OVERVIEW: OCTOBER RESILIENCE CONCEALS FRAGILITY IN MARKET LEADERSHIP
Markets extended their winning streak into October, buoyed by improving global sentiment, decent earnings, and a highly anticipated Fed rate cut while discarding risk associated to the undergoing US government shutdown. The S&P 500 posted its sixth consecutive monthly gain, the longest run since 2021, while Japan’s Nikkei surged 16.6 percent, its strongest month since October 1990, following surprise electoral results. Yet headline strength masked increasing fragility, as gains were narrowly concentrated in mega-cap tech, and concerns mounted around private credit, regional banks, and a potential AI bubble. The equal-weighted S&P 500 fell 0.9 percent, underlining the deterioration in breadth beneath the surface.
The FOMC delivered a 25bps cut as expected, bringing the Fed Funds rate to 3.75 to 4.00 percent, but Chair Powell struck a more hawkish tone, saying a December cut was "far from a foregone conclusion." The hawkish tilt triggered a sharp 10bps spike in 10-year Treasury yields, the largest one-day jump in over four months, though sovereign bonds still rallied on the month, with the 10-year yield finishing 7bps lower at 4.08 percent. Meanwhile, the Fed confirmed it would end its QT program on December 1. The ECB held rates steady at 2 percent, reiterating that policy remains "in a good place," though soft Eurozone data and ongoing fiscal concerns, particularly in France, kept investors wary.
Risk markets were briefly rattled mid-month as President Trump reignited trade war fears by threatening 100 percent tariffs on China and scrapping a potential meeting with Xi. The VIX rocketed from 20 to 29 in less than 24 hours, the highest since May, driven by a sharp surge in hedging activity that amplified market volatility. However, Trump later reversed course, and a flurry of diplomacy culminated in a scaled-back trade deal at the Busan summit. The VIX collapsed back below 16, as dip-buyers stepped in and volatility quickly gave way to renewed complacency. The tariff truce, which included a cut in fentanyl tariffs and delayed export restrictions, helped restore risk appetite, but its temporary nature left markets vulnerable to headline whiplash.
Meanwhile, the US government shutdown entered its second month, delaying critical data releases and leaving the Fed partially data-blind at a time when it claims to be "data-dependent." This lack of visibility is raising the risk of policy missteps ahead.
Commodities saw two-way price action. Brent crude initially weakened but rallied sharply into month-end after the US tightened sanctions on Russian oil exports. Gold touched 4,400 mid-month before retracing to 4,003, marking a 3.7 percent monthly gain, while silver posted its sixth straight monthly advance, the longest run since 1980.
In short, October delivered another leg higher for risk assets, but one increasingly driven by fragile sentiment, concentrated leadership, and geopolitical goodwill. With policy at a turning point, volatility prone to spikes, and positioning stretched, investors may be wise to brace for a bumpier path forward, one where resilience is likely to be tested, not assumed.
FUND DEVELOPMENT: OCTOBER GAINS DRIVEN BY TREND PERSISTENCE, BUT VOLATILITY AND COMMODITY FACTORS MIXED
The Fund posted small gains in October, supported by steady contributions from systematic strategies amid a backdrop of strong directional trends. Market conditions were defined by persistent moves in equities and metals, though a mid-month volatility spike and a re-correlation in commodity factors created headwinds for some strategies.
KEY CONTRIBUTORS INCLUDED:
• Trend Following: Cross-asset trend models performed well, capturing the continued rally in global equities and both precious and industrial metals. The persistence of directional moves across major asset classes created a favorable environment for trend-based signals.
• Volatility Carry: Results were mixed. Rates volatility carry delivered solid gains, supported by a quiet macro calendar due to the ongoing US government shutdown, which reduced event-driven volatility. However, equity and commodity volatility carry detracted, impacted by the sharp spike in equity volatility mid-month and outsized moves in oil and gold.
• Commodities: Performance was negative as traditional signals like value, curve momentum, and carry became more correlated than usual, reducing diversification and limiting the strategy's effectiveness during the month.
Discretionary Protection:
• Protection modestly detracted. Exposure to equity downside weighed on performance whiles FX was a small positive contributor.
• In line with our framework, we keep defensive positions, spread between mechanical hedges (S&P500 put spreads), behavioural and statistical hedges (long volatility and credit protection) and defensive diversifiers (single stocks vs index volatility spreads).
Opportunistic Trades:
• Our long FX volatility trades detracted performance as implied volatilities continued to compress during the course of the month. We are still of the view that it is a matter of time until we see mean reversion here given the extremely low percentiles currently observed in an environment of heightened political / geopolitical uncertainty and central bank policy divergence. We added to our long USDHKD carry play. In the rates space, we took some profits on our long Gilt vs Bund rates spread.
FUND POSITIONING: CORE STABLE AS EUR RATES VOLATILITY EXPOSURE EXPANDS
Core systematic exposures remained largely unchanged in October, maintaining the Fund’s balanced allocation across asset classes. However, we took the opportunity to broaden our positioning in interest rate volatility by introducing new strategies focused on EUR rates.
Specifically, we added both EUR rates volatility carry and EUR rates volatility hedging strategies, enhancing the portfolio’s ability to capture premium in stable environments while improving protection should rate volatility increase. This adjustment reflects our view that European rates markets offer diversification, particularly given diverging central bank narratives and evolving politicization of markets.
OUTLOOK: MOMENTUM PERSISTS, BUT RISKS ARE RISING
October’s market strength was driven by trend persistence and renewed optimism around US–China trade, but the backdrop remains fragile. A cautious Fed, delayed economic data, and signs of stress in private credit and regional banks suggest that risks are mounting beneath the surface.
While directional signals continue to perform well, narrow leadership and headline-driven volatility underscore the need for discipline.
We remain committed to our systematic, diversified approach. In a market where clarity is limited and sentiment can shift quickly, consistency and adaptive positioning remains our highest priority.
Please do not hesitate to contact 1798 Investor Relations for any additional information on the fund.
Sincerely,
the DOM Global Macro team
partager.