Dear investors, Please find below the November 2019 issue of FX Monthly. Key highlights: - A normalisation in US-China trade disputes and a modest pickup in global trade are both prerequisites and central to USD weakness in 2020
- Under this (base-case scenario), we expect the overvalued USD to adjust lower and EURUSD to be supported by valuations as well as some improvement in global trade
- Sterling should continue to benefit as the disorderly Brexit premium is priced out
- The Swiss franc is likely to weaken modestly while the Japanese yen may trade weaker in the near term but eventually regain its ground against the softer USD
- Finally, in China we expect the normalisation of global trade, together with a recovery in emerging market growth, to underpin the CNY.
FX Forecasts: | Q419 | Q420 | EURUSD | 1.12 | 1.15 | GBPUSD | 1.30 | 1.35 | EURGBP | 0.86 | 0.85 | EURCHF | 1.10 | 1.12 | EURSEK | 10.85 | 10.85 | EURNOK | 10.00 | 9.85 | USDCHF | 0.98 | 0.97 | USDJPY | 110 | 107 | USDCAD | 1.32 | 1.28 | AUDUSD | 0.69 | 0.72 | NZDUSD | 0.63 | 0.63 | USDCNY | 7.00 | 6.80 | Best regards, Investment Solutions FX Strategy team |