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Outlook 2020: is the dollar heading for a secular decline ?

Investment Solutions - FX Strategy

Dear investors,

Please find below the November 2019 issue of FX Monthly.

Key highlights:

A normalisation in US-China trade disputes and a modest pickup in global trade are both prerequisites and central to USD weakness in 2020
Under this (base-case scenario), we expect the overvalued USD to adjust lower and EURUSD to be supported by valuations as well as some improvement in global trade
Sterling should continue to benefit as the disorderly Brexit premium is priced out
The Swiss franc is likely to weaken modestly while the Japanese yen may trade weaker in the near term but eventually regain its ground against the softer USD
Finally, in China we expect the normalisation of global trade, together with a recovery in emerging market growth, to underpin the CNY.

FX Forecasts:

	Q419	Q420
EURUSD	1.12	1.15
GBPUSD	1.30	1.35
EURGBP	0.86	0.85
EURCHF	1.10	1.12
EURSEK	10.85	10.85
EURNOK	10.00	9.85
USDCHF	0.98	0.97
USDJPY	110	107
USDCAD	1.32	1.28
AUDUSD	0.69	0.72
NZDUSD	0.63	0.63
USDCNY	7.00	6.80

Best regards,

Investment Solutions FX Strategy team

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