|
Dear investors,
Please find below the November 2019 issue of FX Monthly.
Key highlights:
- A normalisation in US-China trade disputes and a modest pickup in global trade are both prerequisites and central to USD weakness in 2020
- Under this (base-case scenario), we expect the overvalued USD to adjust lower and EURUSD to be supported by valuations as well as some improvement in global trade
- Sterling should continue to benefit as the disorderly Brexit premium is priced out
- The Swiss franc is likely to weaken modestly while the Japanese yen may trade weaker in the near term but eventually regain its ground against the softer USD
- Finally, in China we expect the normalisation of global trade, together with a recovery in emerging market growth, to underpin the CNY.
FX Forecasts:
| |
Q419 |
Q420 |
| EURUSD |
1.12 |
1.15 |
| GBPUSD |
1.30 |
1.35 |
| EURGBP |
0.86 |
0.85 |
| EURCHF |
1.10 |
1.12 |
| EURSEK |
10.85 |
10.85 |
| EURNOK |
10.00 |
9.85 |
| USDCHF |
0.98 |
0.97 |
| USDJPY |
110 |
107 |
| USDCAD |
1.32 |
1.28 |
| AUDUSD |
0.69 |
0.72 |
| NZDUSD |
0.63 |
0.63 |
| USDCNY |
7.00 |
6.80 |
Best regards,
Investment Solutions FX Strategy team
|
