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Investment Committee Update

Investment Solutions - Investment Committee

Crossasset

Dear investors,

Please find below our latest edition of the Investment Committee Update as of 14.01.2020.

In a nutshell:

While the signing of the ‘phase one’ trade deal between the US and China does not eliminate all trade uncertainty, it indicates a change in the direction of travel from the constant tit-for-tat measures towards de-escalation and continued dialogue
The easing of tensions produces scope for improvement in trade flows and manufacturing after an exceptionally weak period. However, economic recovery will likely be gradual given lingering uncertainty, maturing business cycles and limited policy support
While not a new phenomenon, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are worth watching in light of recent escalation. But our oil price outlook remains unchanged for now as Iran crude exports are already close to zero, OPEC has rebuilt spare capacity, and some new production is coming on stream in early 2020
Asset allocation: Taking into account the recent large market moves, we have made two adjustments, shifting some exposure from Swiss real estate to European real estate in CHF accounts, and substituting gold exposure for US Treasuries in USD profiles. EUR and GBP portfolios remain unchanged.

Best regards,

Investment Committee

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