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Turning tactically neutral on sterling
Investment Solutions - FX Strategy

Dear investors,

Please find below the Janurary 2020 issue of G10 FX Monthly.

Key highlights:

  • We remain bearish on the dollar for 2020 based on the narrowing of the US-RoW (rest of world) growth rate differential, stabilisation in the US-China trade developments, and a fundamental inability of US yields to move higher
  • We expect EURUSD to come under some modest upside pressure, reaching 1.15 by the end of the year
  • At the same time, we have revised lower our GBP forecasts, as BoE members have recently become more dovish. Because of the lower dollar, we see GBPUSD ending the year above current levels, but below but its highs of around 1.35
  • USDJPY appears toppish at 110, while CHF’s recent strength is likely to fade

FX Forecasts:

  Q220 Q420
EURUSD 1.14 1.15
GBPUSD 1.31 1.33
EURGBP 0.87 0.86
EURCHF 1.12 1.12
EURSEK 10.60 10.65
EURNOK 9.80 9.70
USDCHF 0.98 0.97
USDJPY 108 107
USDCAD 1.28 1.27
AUDUSD 0.70 0.72
NZDUSD 0.63 0.63

Best regards,

Investment Solutions FX Strategy team

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