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The dollar and 2020 US presidential elections
Investment Solutions - Strategy

Dear Investors,

Please find below our last Investment Strategy Bulletin as of
29 November 2019.

The dollar and 2020 US presidential elections: protectionism and trade policies at the forefront

  • The US presidential elections are scheduled for November 2020
  • Though too early to speculate on the outcome, we discuss potential dollar implications under different presidencies
  • We view the risks as tilted towards USD downside in case of a Trump or Warren presidency – something which could, however, be completely turned on its head under a scenario of a significant step up in protectionism and re-escalation in trade wars
  • Biden and Bloomberg are more likely to provide a return to mainstream policies, allowing the dollar to trade more in line with relative economic developments.

Best regards,
The FX Strategy team

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