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US recession -
are we nearly there yet?
Investment Solutions - Chief Investment Officer

Dear Investors,


This week we look at a number of US economic indicators, some of which point to a slowdown. But are we close to the end of the decade-old bull market, or a recession?


Key takeaways:

  • The US faces political turmoil and contradictory economic signals
  • We are watching for signs that the decade-old bull market is weakening
  • US consumer spending is holding up and unemployment is still low but manufacturing and services are in decline
  • The Sahm Rule offers a new indicator
  • While there is some weak data, we see no short-term recession threat.

Best regards,

Stéphane Monier
Chief Investment Officer, Lombard Odier Private Bank

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