Strategy Bulletin  

28/09/2015

INVESTING FOR A "GOLDEN AGE"

Thematic investing can be one way of seeking to outperform the market. We talk to Johan Utterman, a Portfolio Manager at Lombard Odier Investment Managers, about the ‘Golden Age’ strategy: investing in companies looking to profit from an ageing demographic.

 

So what’s the theory behind this investment strategy?
Well, the data speak for themselves, and we think this is one of the most important trends in the investment world. There will be 2 billion people aged 60 and above by 20501, and their spending power will have reached $15 trillion by 20202. So not only are life expectancies lengthening – by almost 100 days a year on average in some countries3 - but people are staying healthier and active for longer. And this is a demographic with huge purchasing power. Senior citizens and ‘baby boomers’ – by which I mean those born after the Second World War – sit on up to three quarters of net worth in the US and other developed countries4.

And what kind of things are they buying?
I can give some specific examples if you like. Some are more obvious than others: people aged over 60 take three times as many medications as those below 60, as their health starts to decline5. People want to look good as they age: women aged 50-60 spend three times as much on cosmetics and skin lotions as those aged 20-306. And people want to enjoy their retirement: in the US, the average age of a Mercedes S-Class buyer is 627. So that’s a couple of mini trends already: healthcare and cosmetic spending, and spending on high-value discretionary items.

How can investors take advantage of these trends?
We typically focus on six sectors, and seek high quality companies within them. The first is healthcare: anything from hearing aids, cancer drugs and diagnostic tools to hospital operators. And the industrial sectors that supply them: laboratory equipment, and food and water testing facilities. The third is material companies, focussing on vitamins, nutrition and dietary supplements. The fourth is financials: life insurers and asset managers, who help people save and provide for their retirement. We also target companies that focus on consumer discretionary spending: anything from art and watches, to mobile homes, cruises and funerals. And finally the technology sector is also very important: anything from healthcare IT, to robots and consumer electronics.

1Source: World Health Organisation estimate
2Source: Euromonitor
3Source: ‘Broken Limits to Life Expectancy’, Jim Oeppen and James W. Vaupel, Science Magazine 2002. Female life expectancy in record-holding countries has increased at almost 3 months per year from 1840 to the present day
4Source: ‘The History and Demography of Aging in the United States’, from the Encyclopedia of Aging and Public Health, edited by Sana Loue and Martha Sajatovic, 2008
5Report by American healthcare company Perrigo.
6Report by Financial company Evercore ISI
7Source : USA Today.


IMPORTANT INFORMATION - GENERAL MARKETING
This is a publication issued by Lombard Odier (Europe) S.A., a credit institution authorised and regulated by the Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier (CSSF) in Luxembourg. This communication has been approved for issue by each of its branches operating in the territories indicated at the bottom of this page (hereinafter "Lombard Odier"). It is not intended for distribution, publication, or use in any jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, or use would be unlawful, nor is it aimed at any person or entity to whom it would be unlawful to address such a document.
This publication is provided for information purposes only. It does not constitute an offer or a recommendation to subscribe, to purchase, sell or hold any security or financial instrument. It contains the opinions of Lombard Odier, as at the date of issue. These opinions and the information herein contained do not take into account an individual’s specific circumstances, objectives, or needs. No representation is made that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to individual circumstances or that any investment or strategy constitutes a personal recommendation to any investor. Tax treatment depends on the individual circumstances of each client and may be subject to change in the future. Lombard Odier does not provide tax advice. Therefore you must verify the above and all other information provided in the publication or otherwise review it with your external tax advisors. Investment are subject to a variety of risks. Before entering into any transaction, an investor should consult his/her investment advisor and, where necessary, obtain independent professional advice in respect of risks, as well as any legal, regulatory, credit, tax, and accounting consequences. The information and analysis contained herein are based on sources considered to be reliable. However, Lombard Odier does not guarantee the timeliness, accuracy, or completeness of the information contained in this document, nor does it accept any liability for any loss or damage resulting from its use. All information and opinions as well as the prices, market valuations and calculations indicated herein may change without notice. Past performance is no guarantee of current or future returns, and the investor may receive back less than he invested. The value of any investment in a currency other than the base currency of a portfolio is subject to foreign exchange rate risk. These rates may fluctuate and adversely affect the value of the investment when it is realized and converted back into the investor’s base currency. The liquidity of an investment is subject to supply and demand. Some products may not have a well-established secondary market or in extreme market conditions may be difficult to value, resulting in price volatility and making it difficult to obtain a price to dispose of the asset.

Lombard Odier (Europe) S.A. branches in the European Union:
Belgium: Lombard Odier (Europe) S.A. Luxembourg • Belgium branch, a credit institution regulated in Belgium by the Banque National de Belgique (BNB) and the Financial Services and Markets Authority (FSMA); France: Lombard Odier (Europe) S.A.• Succursale en France, a credit institution and regulated in France by the Autorité de contrôle prudentiel et de résolution (ACPR) and by the Autorité des marchés financiers (AMF) in respect of its investment services activities. Netherlands: Lombard Odier (Europe) S.A. • Netherlands Branch, a credit institution regulated in the Netherlands by De Nederlansche Bank (DNB); Spain: Lombard Odier (Europe) S.A. • Sucursal en España, a credit institution regulated in Spain by the Banco de España and the Comisión Nacional del Mercado de Valores (CNMV); and United Kingdom: Lombard Odier (Europe) S.A. • UK Branch regulated in the UK by the Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA) and subject to limited regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority (‘FCA’) and the Prudential Regulation Authority (‘PRA’). Details of the extent of our authorisation and regulation by the PRA and regulation by the FCA are available from us on request. UK regulation for the protection of retail clients in the UK and the compensation available under the UK Financial Services Compensation Scheme does not apply in respect of any investment or services provided by an overseas person

In addition, this publication has also been approved for issue by the following entities domiciled within the European Union: France: Lombard Odier Gestion (France), an investment management company authorised (no. GP 01-011) and regulated by the AMF; Gibraltar: this publication has been approved for issue by Lombard Odier & Cie (Gibraltar) Limited, a firm which is regulated and authorised by the Financial Services Commission, Gibraltar (FSC) to conduct banking and investment services business; Spain: Lombard Odier Gestión (España) S.G.I.I.C., S.A.U., an investment management Company authorised and regulated by the CNMV. Switzerland: This publication has been approved for issue by Bank Lombard Odier & Co Ltd, a bank and securities dealer authorised and regulated by the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA). United States: Neither this publication nor any copy thereof may be sent, taken into, or distributed in the United States of America, any of its territories or possessions or areas subject to its jurisdiction, or to or for the benefit of a United States Person. For this purpose, the term "United States Person" shall mean any citizen, national or resident of the United States of America, partnership organized or existing in any state, territory or possession of the United States of America, a corporation organized under the laws of the United States or of any state, territory or possession thereof, or any estate or trust that is subject to United States Federal income tax regardless of the source of its income.
This publication may not be reproduced (in whole or in part), transmitted, modified, or used for any public or commercial purpose without the prior written permission of Lombard Odier.
© 2015 Lombard Odier (Europe) S.A – all rights reserved

News

La vigueur de l’euro devrait encore durer

Thought leadership

16/08/2017

Well-designed wealth – Life insurance

Thought leadership

31/07/2017

Emerging Markets - China spreading its influence

Quarterly Investment Strategy

20/07/2017

Japan - As good as it gets

Quarterly Investment Strategy

19/07/2017

Rethinking family governance

Thought leadership

18/07/2017

Europe - Euroscepticism losing ground

Quarterly Investment Strategy

17/07/2017

France Embraces Digital Revolution

Thought leadership

13/07/2017

United States - Neither inflation, nor recession

Quarterly Investment Strategy

12/07/2017

Mid-year review: so far, so good

Quarterly Investment Strategy

10/07/2017

Q3 2017 Investment Outlook

Q3 2017 Investment Outlook

Investment Strategy Podcast

06/07/2017

RETHINK EVERYTHING

Thought leadership

28/06/2017

Les philanthropes, la finance et la cité

Thought leadership

20/06/2017

RETHINKING EDUCATION

Thought leadership

15/06/2017

RETHINKING HEALTHCARE

Thought leadership

31/05/2017

Rethink Fixed Income with Climate Bonds

Thought leadership

29/05/2017

Rethinking “Next-Gen” Philanthropy

Thought leadership

24/05/2017

Gestion des fondations en transformation

Thought leadership

23/05/2017

The 100% Impact Investor

Thought leadership

19/05/2017

Asset Allocation – Keep looking on the bright side

Quarterly Investment Strategy

18/05/2017

China to take control of Asian trade

Investment Strategy

11/05/2017

French Elections Investment Strategy

French Elections Investment Strategy

Investment Strategy Podcast

10/05/2017

French presidential elections

Investment Strategy

08/05/2017

Hedge funds and rising interest rates

Investment Strategy

01/05/2017

French Elections

French Elections

Investment Strategy Podcast

25/04/2017

French Presidential Elections

Investment Strategy

24/04/2017

Japan: The longevity issue

Quarterly Investment Strategy

24/04/2017

Europe: Towards the end of negative rates?

Quarterly Investment Strategy

21/04/2017

Le Pen, Frexit and the future of the EU

Investment Strategy

10/04/2017

Q2 2017 Investment Outlook

Q2 2017 Investment Outlook

Investment Strategy Podcast

03/04/2017

Le franc, refuge des élections en Europe

Thought leadership

16/03/2017

Rethinking sustainable cities with Monocle

Rethink everything

24/02/2017

Brexit: Surviving outside the single market?

Investment Strategy

19/01/2017

Japan: an accidental winner?

Quarterly Investment Strategy

29/12/2016

Emerging markets: Recovery still in its early innings

Quarterly Investment Strategy

28/12/2016

Europe: Still much political risk on the horizon

Quarterly Investment Strategy

23/12/2016

United States: a tired economy about to get a vitamin boost

Quarterly Investment Strategy

22/12/2016

Investment outlook 2017

Investment outlook 2017

Investment Strategy Podcast

19/12/2016

OPEC rises from the ashes

OPEC rises from the ashes

Investment Strategy Podcast

04/12/2016

Diabetes : a game-changing technology

Numeric health

18/11/2016

Post-US election investment outlook update

Post-US election investment outlook update

Investment strategy podcast

16/11/2016

Positioning portfolios for President Trump

Positioning portfolios for President Trump

Investment strategy podcast

10/11/2016

Donald Trump elected President

Investment Strategy

09/11/2016

US election update

US election update

Investment Strategy Podcast

24/10/2016

Q4 2016 Investment Outlook

Q4 2016 Investment Outlook

Investment Strategy Podcast

21/10/2016

United States: Will policy support prolong the expansion?

Quarterly Investment Strategy

21/10/2016

Japan: Alone at the forefront

Quarterly Investment Strategy

19/10/2016

US presidential election: potential market impacts

Investment strategy bulletin

12/10/2016

A politically heated final quarter

Quarterly Investment Strategy

07/10/2016

The metamorphosis of philanthropy

Philanthropy

20/09/2016

US elections 2016: more status quo than system reboot

Investment strategy bulletin

16/09/2016

ASIAN PERSPECTIVES ON ENTREPRENEURSHIP

Entrepreneurship

25/08/2016

RETURN OF THE ‘NOTORIOUS BoJ’

Investment strategy Asia

09/08/2016

CAN GOLD REALLY ACT AS A HEDGE?

Investment Strategy Bulletin

22/07/2016

WHERE ART AND INSPIRATION MEET

Partnership

19/07/2016

POLITICAL RISKS AND ECONOMIC COUNTERFORCES

Quarterly Investment Strategy

14/07/2016

Q3 2016 INVESTMENT OUTLOOK

Q3 2016 INVESTMENT OUTLOOK

Investment Strategy Podcast

13/07/2016

POSITIONING FOR BREXIT: WHAT NEXT FOR THE BANKS?

Sector update - Brexit

04/07/2016

BREXIT: MAJOR CENTRAL BANKS EXPECTED TO ACT

Investment Strategy

24/06/2016

COULD MONEY FLY?

Investment Strategy Bulletin

01/06/2016

HAPPY ANNIVERSARY UAE

Corporate

09/05/2016

EMERGING MARKETS: AN UNEXPECTED PERIOD OF PEACE

Quarterly Investment Strategy

04/05/2016

INVESTMENT OUTLOOK

INVESTMENT OUTLOOK

Investment Strategy Podcast

29/04/2016

JAPAN: IN SEARCH OF A VIRTUOUS CYCLE

Quarterly Investment Strategy

28/04/2016

EUROPE: NO SIGN OF A CREDIT BINGE

Quarterly Investment Strategy

25/04/2016

THE US ECONOMY (READ: CONSUMER) STILL HAS STAMINA

Quarterly Investment Strategy

21/04/2016

THE END OF THE CREDIT CYCLE

Fixed income monthly

19/04/2016

A SWISS PERSPECTIVE ON BREXIT: PART II

Investment Strategy Bulletin

18/04/2016

MARKET OUTLOOK: LOW, SLOW AND STABLE

Quarterly Investment Strategy

15/04/2016

A SWISS PERSPECTIVE ON BREXIT

Investment Strategy Bulletin

13/04/2016

ASSET ALLOCATION: INVESTING BEYOND THE PANIC

Quarterly Investment Strategy

12/04/2016

SWISS FINTECH INNOVATION

Association

31/03/2016

UNTAPPING LATAM’S POTENTIAL

Investment strategy

23/03/2016

EN ROUTE TO NEGATIVE RATES

Investment strategy

24/02/2016

COMMITTED TO INDEPENDENT ASSET MANAGEMENT

Strategy bulletin

23/02/2016

THE ART OF MEASURING IMPACT

Investment strategy

28/01/2016

Q1 2016 INVESTMENT OUTLOOK

Q1 2016 INVESTMENT OUTLOOK

Investment Strategy Podcast

19/01/2016

QUARTERLY INVESTMENT STRATEGY: JAPAN OUTLOOK

Investment strategy

21/12/2015

QUARTERLY INVESTMENT STRATEGY: US OUTLOOK

Investment strategy

18/12/2015

HAS RUSSIA SEEN THE WORST ?

Strategy Bulletin

03/11/2015

HOW WORRIED SHOULD WE BE ABOUT BRAZIL?

Strategy Bulletin

12/10/2015

ADAPTING TO LOWER-FOR-LONGER OIL PRICES

Strategy Bulletin

06/10/2015

INVESTING FOR A "GOLDEN AGE"

Strategy Bulletin

28/09/2015

Expert view: The Fed holds its fire, again

Expert view: The Fed holds its fire, again

Investment Strategy Podcast

18/09/2015

FED IN FOCUS

Strategy Bulletin

30/07/2015

Q3 Investment Outlook from our European bank

Q3 Investment Outlook from our European bank

Investment Strategy Podcast

15/07/2015

GREECE: AFTER THE REFERENDUM

Strategy Bulletin

06/07/2015

TIME TO RE-VISIT EMERGING MARKETS?

Strategy Bulletin

03/07/2015

Expert view: What should you do with your cash holdings?

Expert view: What should you do with your cash holdings?

Investment Strategy Podcast

26/06/2015

OIL UPSIDE IS CAPPED

Strategy Bulletin

28/05/2015

Opportunities and risks in global markets

Opportunities and risks in global markets

Investment Strategy Podcast

19/05/2015

Our Q&A on Greece

Strategy Bulletin

17/02/2015

Economic outlook 2015

Strategy Bulletin

17/12/2014

LOWER OIL PRICES:GOOD NEWS, OR BAD?

Strategy Bulletin

01/12/2014

ROUGH TIMES FOR SOUTH AMERICA

Strategy Bulletin

03/11/2014

WHY COMMODITIES ARE BACK IN FOCUS

Strategy Bulletin

05/08/2014

WILL THE SNB HAVE TO FOLLOW THE ECB?

Strategy Bulletin

20/06/2014

EMERGING MARKETS: TIME TO DIFFERENTIATE

Strategy Bulletin

16/05/2014

CHINA’S DELEVERAGING STRATEGY

Strategy Bulletin

24/04/2014

ABENOMICS. THE EASY PART IS OVER

Strategy Bulletin

18/03/2014

WHAT ARE THE ECB’S OPTIONS?

Strategy Bulletin

13/02/2014

LOWER CHINESE GROWTH AND OPPORTUNITIES

Strategy Bulletin

21/01/2014