Asia outlook 2019

Optimism returns to Asian markets in 2019

Will the year of the pig bring good fortune to Emerging Markets?

Will the year of the pig bring good fortune to Emerging Markets?

2019 is host to the year of the Pig, which, according to Chinese astrology, symbolises a year of joy, friendships and success with wealth. Superstitions aside, a number of metrics have signalled a similar conclusion of increased wealth within EM markets, fuelling current investor confidence.

 

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optimism returns to Asian markets in 2019.

optimism returns to Asian markets in 2019.

We believe there are reasons to be cautiously optimistic for Asian equities in 2019, despite an uncertain backdrop.

 

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a positive outlook for Asian credit in 2019.

a positive outlook for Asian credit in 2019.

We are bullish on the outlook for the asset class for the coming months. A few key themes for Asian credit could add wings to a rally.

 

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trade wars and emerging markets.

trade wars and emerging markets.

Understanding the drivers of the current trade war remains key to understanding current and future asset market developments, especially in emerging markets (EM).

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temporary yet concrete truce - we continue to expect EM outperformance.

temporary yet concrete truce - we continue to expect EM outperformance.

We continue to expect EM outperformance. President Trump and President Xi declared a temporary trade truce at the 2018 G20 summit in Buenos Aires, which ran from 30 November to 1 December, in line with our out-of-consensus views.

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China’s policy stimulus.

China’s policy stimulus.

We think the consensus forecast for Chinese growth in 2019 is too bearish. It has been pricing a lot of negativity which we think will be offset to a certain extent by the policy moves undertaken by China. 

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