Investment Strategy  

09/11/2016

Donald Trump elected President

US_Internet_270x290.jpg

Donald Trump is the winner of the US Presidential election, achieving a clear victory against the odds, confounding polls, forecast models, market sentiment, and our own expectations.

 

The Republican party has also managed to keep control of both chambers of Congress, maintaining a very large majority in the House of Representatives as well as a slim Senate majority. This outcome boosts the President-elect’s ability to govern, as he will now only need to reach intra-party agreement in order to get his chosen policy agenda implemented. We see the election of Donald Trump as a break with the status quo and we consider this outcome as one of the political events that financial markets will have to adjust to in the new political and economic environment.

The economic agenda of the Trump campaign was primarily focused on scaling back or restructuring trade relationships (in particular those with major trade partners such as Mexico and China), a strong opposition to immigration, deregulation (notably in industries such as energy, healthcare, and financial services), as well as a plan for substantial tax cuts – especially in higher income brackets.

Of particular relevance to financial markets is also the critical stance that Donald Trump has held against current Federal Reserve policies, and specifically against Janet Yellen. This has generated expectations that Yellen may be replaced as the Fed Chair when her term expires in 2018 (or even at an earlier date if she decides to step down) with a more hawkishly inclined candidate, in line with the prevailing Republican economic thinking. However whether the President-elect chooses to take this direction is an open question, as restrictive monetary policy would run counter to his stated goal of doubling US growth.

While lower policy visibility coming from a Trump Presidency might generate some volatility in financial markets in the short-term, over the longer term, the effects for risky assets are less clear-cut, as the pro-growth impact from economic stimulus and deregulatory policies that a Trump government may put forward will have to be weighed against the increased uncertainty caused by the less stable policy environment. One notable risk worth monitoring is that

an oversized fiscal stimulus through lower taxes and higher spending could generate inflationary pressures, which would pose upward pressures for the US rates curve and possibly also for the US dollar.

PORTFOLIO POSITIONING: REDUCING OUR US EQUITIES UNDERWEIGHT AND TAKING SOME PROFITS ON OUR EMERGING MARKETS BOND EXPOSURE

The potentially disruptive nature of this Trump presidency explains the shortterm risk-off reaction we are witnessing on global markets. From a portfolio positioning standpoint, it is important to distinguish the trends that are likely to last over the coming months –and thus that should trigger an investment decision- from the trends that should eventually prove short-lived.

The actual consequences will be highly dependent on the President’s ability to pass his most radical proposals. This Trump victory, associated with Republicans holding on to their majority in both the Senate and the House, should facilitate adoption of his main policy positions on fiscal stimulus and trade / immigration but there are still uncertainties around which proposals the Republican party will eventually enable him to enact. As such, today’s electoral outcome might question some well-entrenched trends such as yield-chasing and emerging market stabilisation. But some contradictory aspects of his program (pro-growth, protectionism and more hawkish monetary policy) make the assessment difficult to draw. So far, we put more weight on the reflationary and pro-growth domestic measures.

Equities: Halving our US equities underweight at the expense of European equities
Following an initial bout of market volatility, Trump’s proposed reduction of the corporate tax rate and expectations of a boost to the domestic economy should lead to an outperformance of US equities. In this context, we decided to halve our underweight in US equities at the expense of European equities. For the time being, we maintain our emerging market equity exposure unchanged as the reflationary trend we are experiencing could be reinforced. More evidence of dramatic protectionism measures would be required to really reverse this trend.

Sector-wise, the main themes of the Trump campaign suggest outperformance of big pharma (repeal Obamacare), financials (dismantle Dodd-Frank and steeper yield curve, see hereafter), materials (impose tariffs on Chinese steel and invest in infrastructure), traditional energy (support energy production and deregulate exports) and information technology (offer a repatriation holiday on foreign earnings).

Fixed Income: Taking partial profits on emerging local currency bonds
US Treasury bonds are likely to initially benefit from safe haven flows. However, in the medium-term, once the dust settles, there are many aspects of the Trump program that should drive US yields higher, notably a larger public deficit (with infrastructure investments and tax cuts not funded by a rise in tax revenues), the appointment of a more hawkish Fed Chairman to replace Janet Yellen, upward pressure on wages and imported inflation due to immigration and trade barriers. Both real rates and inflation break-even rates should thus rise significantly in the coming weeks leading to a marked steepening of the yield curve. For this reason, we maintain our underweight on government bonds.

Turning to credit, higher company financing costs are likely to be somewhat offset by a corporate tax cut. Despite high leverage, company coverage of interest expenses should thus remain sufficient to avoid a surge in defaults. We would thus maintain our preference for credit bonds, which are less sensitive to a rise in interest rates, whilst also likely to benefit from the fiscal boost.

When it comes to emerging market local debt, exchange rate volatility might be exacerbated especially in Latin America (Mexico) given the uncertainties surrounding the potential measures that could be implemented on trade.

Currencies / Commodities
Finally, on the currency side, the direct effects on the US dollar seem difficult to anticipate. True, the dollar tends to appreciate in times of uncertainty, but in recent weeks it has weakened as polls have shown a narrowing of Clinton’s lead. Trump’s planned repatriation holiday on foreign earnings should support the greenback but it will certainly take some months before these flows materialise. Still, the decreasing probability of a hike in December is likely to ease pressure on the US dollar. All in all we maintain a neutral view on the US dollar against developed market currencies.

It is also worth mentioning that the rise in US interest rates is likely to cap the current rally in gold sooner or later.

IMPORTANT INFORMATION – GENERAL MARKETING
This is a marketing communication issued by Bank Lombard Odier & Co Ltd or an entity of the Group (hereinafter “Lombard Odier”). It is not intended for distribution, publication, or use in any jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, or use would be unlawful, nor is it aimed at any person or entity to whom it would be unlawful to address such a document. This marketing communication is provided for information purposes only.
It does not constitute an offer or a recommendation to subscribe, to purchase, sell or hold any security or financial instrument. It contains the opinions of Lombard Odier, as at the date of issue. These opinions and the information herein contained do not take into account an individual’s specific circumstances, objectives, or needs. No representation is made that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to individual circumstances or that any investment or strategy constitutes a personal recommendation to any investor. Tax treatment depends on the individual circumstances of each client and may be subject to change in the future. Lombard Odier does not provide tax advice. Therefore you must verify the above and all other information provided in the marketing communication or otherwise review it with your external tax advisors.
European Union Members: This marketing communication has been approved for issue by Lombard Odier (Europe) S.A., a credit institution authorised and regulated by the Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier (CSSF) in Luxembourg and by each of its branches operating in the following territories: Belgium: Lombard Odier (Europe) S.A. Luxembourg · Belgium branch, a credit institution regulated in Belgium by the Banque nationale de Belgique (BNB) and the Financial Services and Markets Authority (FSMA); France: Lombard Odier (Europe) S.A. · Succursale en France, a credit institution and regulated in France by the Autorité de contrôle prudentiel et de résolution (ACPR) and by the Autorité des marchés financiers (AMF) in respect of its investment services activities; Italy: Lombard Odier (Europe) S.A.  • Italian Branch, credit institution governed in Italy by the Italian stock market regulator (Commissione Nazionale per la Società e la Borsa , or CONSOB) and the Bank of Italy; Netherlands: Lombard Odier (Europe) S.A. · Netherlands Branch, a credit institution regulated in the Netherlands by De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB) and by Autoriteit Financiële Markten (AFM); Spain: Lombard Odier (Europe) S.A. · Sucursal en España, a credit institution regulated in Spain by the Banco de España and the Comisión Nacional del Mercado de Valores (CNMV); and United Kingdom: Lombard Odier (Europe) S.A. · UK Branch, a credit institution regulated in the UK by the Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA) and subject to limited regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority (“FCA”) and the Prudential Regulation Authority (“PRA”). Details of the extent of our authorisation and regulation by the PRA and regulation by the FCA are available from us on request. UK regulation for the protection of retail clients in the UK and the compensation available under the UK Financial Services Compensation Scheme does not apply in respect of any investment or services provided by an overseas person.
In addition, this marketing communication has also been approved for issue by the following entities domiciled within the European Union: Gibraltar: Lombard Odier & Cie (Gibraltar) Limited, a firm which is regulated and authorised by the Financial Services Commission, Gibraltar (FSC) to conduct banking and investment services business; Spain: Lombard Odier Gestión (España) SGIIC, S.A., an investment management Company authorised and regulated by the CNMV. Switzerland: This marketing communication has been approved for issue by Bank Lombard Odier & Co Ltd, a bank and securities dealer authorised and regulated by the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA). United States: Neither this document nor any copy thereof may be sent, taken into, or distributed in the United States of America, any of its territories or possessions or areas subject to its jurisdiction, or to or for the benefit of a United States Person. For this purpose, the term “United States Person” shall mean any citizen, national or resident of the United States of America, partnership organized or existing in any state, territory or possession of the United States of America, a corporation organized under the laws of the United States or of any state, territory or possession thereof, or any estate or trust that is subject to United States Federal income tax regardless of the source of its income.This marketing communication may not be reproduced (in whole or in part), transmitted, modified, or used for any public or commercial purpose without the prior written permission of Lombard Odier. © 2016 Bank Lombard Odier & Co Ltd – all rights reserved.

Actualités

Marchés émergents - La Chine étend son hégémonie

Quarterly Investment Strategy

20/07/2017

Japan - Difficile de faire mieux

Quarterly Investment Strategy

19/07/2017

La gouvernance familiale repensée

Thought leadership

18/07/2017

Europe - L’euroscepticisme a moins la cote

Quarterly Investment Strategy

17/07/2017

Etats-Unis - Ni inflation, ni récession

Quarterly Investment Strategy

12/07/2017

Bilan à mi-année : jusqu’ici tout va bien

Quarterly Investment Strategy

10/07/2017

Perspectives d'investissement - 3e trimestre 2017

Perspectives d'investissement - 3e trimestre 2017

Investment Strategy Podcast

06/07/2017

RETHINK EVERYTHING

Thought leadership

28/06/2017

Les philanthropes, la finance et la cité

Thought leadership

20/06/2017

RETHINKING EDUCATION

Thought leadership

15/06/2017

RETHINKING HEALTHCARE

Thought leadership

31/05/2017

Rethinking “Next-Gen” Philanthropy

Thought leadership

24/05/2017

Gestion des fondations en transformation

Thought leadership

23/05/2017

L’investisseur « 100% impact »

Thought leadership

19/05/2017

Asset Allocation – Maintenir un biais positif

Quarterly Investment Strategy

18/05/2017

Elections françaises - stratégie d'investissement

Elections françaises - stratégie d'investissement

Investment Strategy Podcast

10/05/2017

Elections présidentielles françaises

Investment Strategy

08/05/2017

Hedge funds and rising interest rates

Investment Strategy

01/05/2017

Elections françaises

Elections françaises

Investment Strategy Podcast

25/04/2017

Elections présidentielles françaises

Investment Strategy

24/04/2017

Japon: La question de la longévité

Quarterly Investment Strategy

24/04/2017

Europe: Vers la fin des taux négatifs ?

Stratégie de placement trimestrielle

21/04/2017

Le Pen, Frexit and the future of the EU

Investment Strategy

10/04/2017

Perspectives d'investissement du 2ème trimestre 2017

Perspectives d'investissement du 2ème trimestre 2017

Investment Strategy Podcast

03/04/2017

Obligations climatiques: il faut rester vigilant

Nos experts dans la presse

01/04/2017

Le franc, refuge des élections en Europe

Nos experts dans la presse

16/03/2017

Rethinking sustainable cities with Monocle

Rethink everything

24/02/2017

Brexit : survivre en dehors du marché unique ?

Stratégie d'investissement

19/01/2017

Japon : un gagnant « accidentel » ?

Stratégie de placement trimestrielle

29/12/2016

Marchés émergents : La reprise ne fait que commencer

Stratégie de placement trimestrielle

28/12/2016

Europe: encore d’importants risques politiques à l’horizon

Stratégie de placement trimestrielle

23/12/2016

États-Unis : une cure de vitamines pour une économie fatiguée

Stratégie de placement trimestrielle

22/12/2016

Perspectives d’investissement 2017

Perspectives d’investissement 2017

Investment Strategy Podcast

19/12/2016

OPEC rises from the ashes

OPEC rises from the ashes

Investment Strategy Podcast

04/12/2016

Diabète : une technologie révolutionnaire

Révolution thérapeutique

18/11/2016

Élections américaines : perspectives d'investissement

Élections américaines : perspectives d'investissement

Investment strategy podcast

16/11/2016

Positioning portfolios for President Trump

Positioning portfolios for President Trump

Investment strategy podcast

10/11/2016

Donald Trump elected President

Investment Strategy

09/11/2016

Perspectives élections américaines

Perspectives élections américaines

Investment Strategy Podcast

24/10/2016

Perspectives d'investissement du 4e trimestre 2016

Perspectives d'investissement du 4e trimestre 2016

Investment Strategy Podcast

21/10/2016

Japon : Seul en première ligne

Stratégie de placement trimestrielle

19/10/2016

Un dernier trimestre placé sous le signe de la politique

Stratégie de placement trimestrielle

07/10/2016

Philanthropie : l'indispensable mue

Philanthropie

20/09/2016

SOUTIEN FISCAL : LE GRAND RETOUR ?

Stratégie d'Investissement

01/09/2016

LE RETOUR DE LA « CÉLÈBRE BoJ »

Stratégie d'investissement Asie

09/08/2016

L’OR EST-IL RÉELLEMENT UNE BONNE COUVERTURE ?

Bulletin de stratégie d'investissement

22/07/2016

DES RISQUES POLITIQUES ET DES LEVIERS ÉCONOMIQUES

Stratégie de placement trimestrielle

14/07/2016

PERSPECTIVES D’INVESTISSEMENT DU 3e TRIMESTRE 2016

PERSPECTIVES D’INVESTISSEMENT DU 3e TRIMESTRE 2016

Investment Strategy Podcast

13/07/2016

FAÇONNER L'AVENIR DE L'IMPACT INVESTING

Impact Investing

07/07/2016

BREXIT : QUELLES PERSPECTIVES POUR LES BANQUES ?

Point de vue des marchés

04/07/2016

L’ARGENT POURRAIT-IL TOMBER DU CIEL ?

Bulletin de stratégie d'investissement

01/06/2016

MARCHÉS ÉMERGENTS : STABILISATION DU PÉTROLE ET DU DOLLAR BIENVENUE

Stratégie de placement trimestrielle

04/05/2016

PERSPECTIVES D’INVESTISSEMENT

PERSPECTIVES D’INVESTISSEMENT

Investment Strategy Podcast

29/04/2016

JAPON : LES CERISIERS FLEURISSENT, LES SALAIRES NATIONAUX FLÉTRISSENT

Stratégie de placement trimestrielle

28/04/2016

EUROPE : LA REPRISE DEVRAIT MAINTENIR SA CADENCE

Stratégie de placement trimestrielle

25/04/2016

ÉTATS-UNIS : l'ECONOMIE RESTE SOLIDE

Stratégie de placement trimestrielle

21/04/2016

LE CYCLE DE CREDIT TOUCHE A SA FIN

Perspectives d'investissement

19/04/2016

LES CRAINTES D’UN BREXIT SONT LÉGITIMES (PARTIE II)

Investment Strategy Bulletin

18/04/2016

L'ECONOMIE MONDIALE A ENCORE DES RESSOURCES

Stratégie de placement trimestrielle

15/04/2016

LES CRAINTES D’UN BREXIT SONT LÉGITIMES (PARTIE I)

Bulletin de stratégie d'investissement Avril 2016

13/04/2016

ALLOCATION D'ACTIFS

Stratégie de placement trimestrielle

12/04/2016

UNE CRISE DE CONFIANCE MONDIALE ?

Philanthropie

05/04/2016

SWISS FINTECH INNOVATION

Association

31/03/2016

AMERIQUE LATINE - QUELLES OPPORTUNITES ?

Investment strategy

23/03/2016

VERS DES TAUX NEGATIFS

Investment strategy

24/02/2016

L'ART DE MESURER L'IMPACT

Stratégie de placement

28/01/2016

PERSPECTIVES D’INVESTISSEMENT DU 1er TRIMESTRE 2016

PERSPECTIVES D’INVESTISSEMENT DU 1er TRIMESTRE 2016

Investment Strategy Podcast

19/01/2016

LE PIRE EST-IL PASSÉ POUR LA RUSSIE ?

Strategy Bulletin

03/11/2015

PERSPECTIVES D’INVESTISSEMENT DU 4ÈME TRIMESTRE 2015

Investment Strategy Podcast

14/10/2015

INVESTIR SUR L’« ÂGE D’OR »

Strategy Bulletin

28/09/2015

Coup de projecteur sur la Fed

Strategy Bulletin

30/07/2015

Grèce : après le référendum

Strategy Bulletin

06/07/2015

La hausse du pétrole est plafonnée

Strategy Bulletin

28/05/2015

Opportunities and risks in global markets

Opportunities and risks in global markets

Investment Strategy Podcast

19/05/2015

Notre foire aux questions sur la Grèce

Bulletin d'investissement

17/02/2015

Economic outlook 2015

Bullletin de stratégie

17/12/2014

BAISSE DU PÉTROLE: BONNE OU MAUVAISE NOUVELLE ?

Bulletin de stratégie

01/12/2014

DES TEMPS DIFFICILES POUR L'AMÉRIQUE DU SUD

Bulletin de stratégie

03/11/2014

LA BNS DOIT-ELLE EMBOÎTER LE PAS À LA BCE ?

Bulletin de stratégie

20/06/2014

LA STRATÉGIE DE DÉSENDETTEMENT DE LA CHINE

Bulletin de stratégie

24/04/2014

ABÉNOMIE : LE PLUS DUR RESTE À VENIR

Bulletin de stratégie

18/03/2014

QUELLES SONT LES OPTIONS DE LA BCE

Bulletin de stratégie

13/02/2014

BAISSE DE LA CROISSANCE CHINOISE ET OPPORTUNITÉS

Bulletin de stratégie

21/01/2014