The remnants of Europe’s political risk have lifted, leaving markets to refocus on fundamentals
By Samy Chaar, Chief Economist Lombard Odier.
- Contrary to expectations, the Conservative party lost its parliamentary majority as Thursday’s snap elections resulted in a hung parliament.
- A minority government with the support of DUP is now the most likely scenario.
- This development makes the outlook around Brexit negotiations even more uncertain, as a less stable government is now faced with a weak negotiating position and a tight timeline.
- From an investment perspective these events do not constitute a game changer on a global scale, although an increased risk premium for UK assets is justified given the increased uncertainty.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries’ (OPEC) decision to extend its production cut for a further 9 months came as a relative disappointment to markets, that had been hoping for a more aggressive outcome (deepened cuts and/or more detail on the exit strategy). But it comforted our baseline scenario of a gradual rebalancing of the oil market over the course of the year.
As the US steps back from global economic leadership, there are signs the world’s second-largest economy may be stepping up. China’s ‘One Belt, One Road’ project expresses the vast ambitions of President Xi Jinping. We are long-term believers in China’s growth and investment story - the backbone of our current overweight to emerging market debt and equities.
Wir bleiben bei unserer positiven Einschätzung des reflationären Wirtschaftsumfelds, die für eine höhere Risikobereitschaft in Portfolios spricht.
By electing Emmanuel Macron, the French people affirmed their faith in European integration, and cleared the way for the continent’s policymakers to get back to the business of growth, writes Stephane Monier, Chief Investment Officer Lombard Odier, and Samy Chaar, Chief Economist Lombard Odier.
Die USA spielen im Welthandel eine zentrale Rolle. Reduzieren sie ihren Marktanteil, dürfte China in die Bresche springen.
Die im vergangenen Jahr angekündigten Ankurbelungsmassnahmen haben die Ängste vor einer bevorstehenden harten Landung Chinas zerstreut.
Head of Investments, Private Banking
A decisive win for Emmanuel Macron
Emmanuel Macron will be the next president of France, having defeated Marine Le Pen by a margin of just over 32 percentage points.
After Emmanuel Macron’s first round victory in France, markets have refocussed on the positive economic picture. Like fears of a protectionist deluge from Donald Trump earlier this year, fears of nationalist ascendancy across Europe now look overdone. We look to economics to explain voters’ level-headed approach in recent polls. We continue to like European equities, and see opportunities for specific sectors ahead.