M&A volumes are expected to surge in 2010 and drive the markets as economic activity rebounds and confidence returns. Lower bond yields and corporate free cash flow are often cited as the drivers for the next, M&A led, rally in the equity markets. But, is it really sensible to count on a strong revival of mergers and acquisitions in the months ahead?

Bien que le risque d’un effondrement systémique ait été écarté début 2009, de nombreux problèmes persistent, notamment aux Etats-Unis.

Dans un ouvrage qui vient de paraître sous le titre De l’expérience à l’expertise – Regard d’un banquier privé sur les enseignements des grands investisseurs du XXe siècle, Lombard Odier évoque sa philosophie de gestion, à la lumière des réflexions d’investisseurs célèbres.

Governments can, and have, run large budget deficits and experience sharply rising debt stock burdens without recourse to default or experiencing funding crises. At a time when excitement surrounds the risk of default in, amongst others, Greece, we think a calming look at the precise conditions that imply sovereign failure is warranted.

The current financial crisis has its root in the mortgage issuance boom that began in 2001 and peaked, with the net issuance of USD 1.1 trillion of household mortgages, in the first half of 2006.

The US economy is hanging on a drip.

Emerging economies are often said to be growing faster than developed countries.

Nous pensons qu’une augmentation de la dette du secteur privé est une condition sine qua non d’une reprise durable de l’économie américaine.

A number of commentators suggest that it does not matter that the economy in the US - and abroad - continues to de-leverage, arguing that previous cyclical recoveries took root whilst debt was still being reduced. Even more, they argue that the deeper the decline in GDP, peak-to-trough, the more rapid the post recession rebound.

Listed property stocks had their biggest rally in 35 years since their trough reached
in March, yet despite deteriorating fundamentals. The opposite trends in direct
property and property shares listed on the stock market led us to have a closer look
at the drivers of both markets within the commercial real estate investment world.

The United States has begun to report data showing signs of an economic recovery
and without a pause, analysts have been adjusting their outlook upward for
Corporate America – the IBES 12-month forward operating earnings for the S&P 500
is now up 10% from three months ago at USD 69.4 per share.

The US Q2 2009 earnings season is ending, apparently on a good note as 73% of
corporates have beaten consensus expectations. Taking a closer look at corporate
earnings, we feel that we should qualify the current optimism surrounding the health
of Corporate America.

La crise qui a débuté en 2007 étant loin de toucher à sa fin, nous avons positionné nos portefeuilles de manière défensive au cours des dernières semaines.

Pour les investisseurs à long terme, les valorisations et les primes de risque actuelles offrent, selon nous, des opportunités ajustées des risques intéressantes.